Tropical Weather Reports

in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA

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Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Oct 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

SPECIAL FEATURES

A broad low pressure system a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of deep convection this afternoon. Organization continues to slowly improve, and this system has been classified as Tropical Depression Twelve. Twelve is located near 14.9N 30.5W at 2100 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm NE and 180 nm NW quadrants. Twelve is expected to move NW tonight and Wed and likely strengthen to a tropical storm. Upper- level winds are expected to become hostile to this system By late Wed or Wed night, and quickly weaken the system into Thu. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection continues across the Tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles this afternoon, from 08N to 14.5N between 53W and 59W. This weather is associated with a tropical wave along 57W. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated this system this afternoon, and found that there is currently no closed low level circulation, and the system remains ill defined. The very active showers and thunderstorms occurring with this system are being displaced to the SE of the mean surface center, due to strong upper level NW winds. Strong E to SE winds to 25 kt and seas to 10 ft accompany this system from 11N to 16N between 54W and 59W. This system will continue to move westward across the Windward Islands late tonight through early Wed and then across the east and central Caribbean during the next few days. Atmospheric conditions are forecast to become conducive for development later this week when the system reaches the central and western Caribbean. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward Islands tonight and across northern Venezuela on Wednesday. Interests in the Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. This system has now a medium chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours, and a high chance through the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of Guinea Bissau near 12N16.5W, then continues WNW to 1007 mb low pressure near 14.5N30.5W to 08.5N42W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N42W to 1008 mb low pressure near 11N57W.Besides convection described above in the special features section, scattered clusters of moderate to strong convection are noted from 03N to 14N between 23W and 28W, and from 07.5N to 10N between 35W and 40.5W.

GULF OF MEXICO

A dry reinforcing cold front is moving across the E Gulf, and extends from near 28N89W to S central Florida. Moderate NE winds follow the front, where seas are 3-4 ft. A surface trough is analyzed from near 20N91.5W, northwestward to inland Mexico near Tampico. Elsewhere, relatively weak high pressure dominates the region supporting gentle to moderate northeast winds. Seas throughout are in the 1-3 ft range. SW to W upper-level flow is advecting multilayer clouds across Mexico into the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will drift south across the eastern Gulf and dissipate through tonight. High pressure north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to moderate seas through Thu. Looking ahead, another front will move into the northern Gulf on Fri, and stall across the central Gulf Sat. Expect fresh NE to E winds across the southeast Gulf late Fri and Sat between high pressure north of the front and lower pressure in the Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Please read the Special Features section for more details on the tropical wave, an associated low pressure, located east of the southern Windward Islands.

A surface trough persists over the west-central Caribbean and extends from 20N79W to 11N81W. Light to gentle winds are on either side of the trough axis. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted W of the trough to the NE coast of Nicaragua along 83.5W, and from 13N to 18.5N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms also dot the eastern Caribbean from 65W to the Lesser Antilles. Mainly light to gentle trade winds dominate the basin, with the exception of moderate trades across the ABC Islands to 15N, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft over the south-central Caribbean, with the highest seas near the coast of Colombia.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure east of the Leeward Islands will move across the Caribbean through Sat, possibly intensifying to a tropical cyclone. The low will bring strong winds and rough seas to the Leeward and Windward Islands tonight, the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri, and into the southwest Caribbean through Sat before the low moves into Central America. Interests across the region should monitor the progress of this system. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected across the basin through late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please read the Special Features section on newly formed Tropical Depression Twelve in the eastern Atlantic Basin, and on the disturbance located east of the Windward Islands.

A stationary front extends from 31N67W to the central Bahamas. A cold front follows it and stretches from 31N72W to inland across south central Florida into the E Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted per scatterometer data in the wake of the cold front with seas of 6 to 9 ft. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is well ahead of the stationary front, from 23.5N to beyond 31N between 61W and 70W. A 1021 mb high is located east of this, near 29N50W while another high pressure center of 1024 mb is just N of the Madeira Islands. Under the influence of these systems, mainly light to gentle winds are observed across the basin, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Fresh easterly trades extend beyond the disturbance along 57W to 19N. Seas there are 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate through mid week. The reinforcing cold front behind it will move SE and stall from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas through Thu then dissipate through Fri. Seas to 10 ft in NE swell north of the Bahamas and east of northeast Florida will subside through Wed.

Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services