Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Mar 29 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Western Atlantic Gale Warning and Large Swell: A strong cold front extends from south of Bermuda to near Cape Canaveral, FL. NE winds behind the front are currently near-gale-force with frequent gusts to gale-force, with peak seas off of NE Florida and Georgia now peaking at 12-15 ft per a 2300 UTC altimeter pass. Winds are expected to diminish below gale-force shortly. The front is is forecast to reach from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning, and from 31N50W to Hispaniola by Mon morning before dissipating over the SE waters on Tue.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 00N25W. The ITCZ then continues from that point to the coast of Brazil at 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N between 10W and 38W.
A cold front extends from Tampa Bay to northeastern Mexico. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NE winds behind the front and E of 87W. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail elsewhere across the basin. Seas in the northern Gulf are increasing to heights of 4-8 ft behind the cold front, while 2-5 ft seas prevail ahead of the front.
For the forecast, a cold front stretches from near Tampa Bay, Florida to 24N90W to just N of Tampico, Mexico. Strong to near gale force NE winds follow the front over the NE basin where seas are moderate to 7 ft. The front will reach South Florida and exit the SE of the basin Sun morning. As the front moves southward, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas will continue to develop over the eastern Gulf through late Sun. The pressure gradient will remain strong enough to sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas across the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida through the middle of the next week.
The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the Gulf cold front and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, as well as in the northern Caribbean Passages. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range over these waters. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms prevail across Jamaica, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, and their adjacent coastal waters.
For the forecast, the gradient of pressure between a ridge extending to the northern Caribbean and the low pressure over NW Colombia will continue to support strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Wed night. Fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola will prevail through the end of the forecast period due to strong high pressure that will build in the wake of a cold front moving through the SW N Atlantic waters through Wed.
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING.
A surface trough analyzed from 31N58W to 21N61W is supporting widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from the trough axis eastward to about 40W, between 20N and 31N. A broad surface ridge continues across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters, centered on a 1041 mb high over the NE Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the central and eastern basin into the tropics. Over the SW N Atlantic waters, winds are mainly light to gentle ahead of the approaching cold front, except for moderate to fresh E-NE winds over the Great Bahama Bank, including the approaches of the Windward Passage.
For the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front extends from just west of Bermuda SW to just south of Cape Canaveral. The front will reach from 31N64W to West Palm Beach early Sun morning, from 29N55W to Hispaniola by early Mon morning, stalls from 25N55W to the Dominican Republic early Tue morning before it dissipates late on Wed. Strong high pressure is building in the wake of the front. This will continue to bring strong with frequent gusts to gale- force winds to the offshores N of 21N, and rough to very rough seas through Thu night.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services