Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
to receive our free report directly to your inbox
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Nov 21 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and continues southwestward to 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from 08N23W to 07N40W and to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 13N between 19W and 23W, and from 06N to 09N between 40W and 50W.
High pressure centered over central Florida dominates the Gulf region producing a gentle to moderate SE to S wind flow, with the exception of light to gentle winds over the NE Gulf. Seas are in general 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft over the NE Gulf. Some shower activity is noted over SE Louisiana and the N-central Gulf N of 26N. A diffluent pattern aloft supports this convective activity. For the forecast, moderate S to SE winds will prevail over much of the Gulf today as high pressure drifts over the northeastern basin and the southeastern United States. Moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening in the Bay of Campeche and north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a diurnal trough develops and moves westward over the region. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong SE winds are expected to develop offshore of Texas and eastern Mexico late this weekend into next week, with locally fresh SE to SW winds expanding over the central and eastern Gulf through midweek, as a cold front moves over the southern U.S.
High pressure located N of the area combined with the Colombian low is promoting fresh to strong trade winds offshore Colombia with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted over the remainder of the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds are present across the basin along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are confined to the southwestern Caribbean likely associated with the eastern extent of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Low-topped trade wind showers are seen elsewhere, with isolated thunderstorms in the regional waters of Jamaica.
For the forecast, strong NE to E winds will pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning through the middle of next week as low pressure prevails over the south-central Caribbean. Rough seas are expected near and to the west of these winds. Otherwise, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the rest of the basin through early next week.
A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N70W and continues SW to near 29N77W. A few showers are along the frontal boundary. High pressure dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic, with a 1021 mb high pressure located over central Florida. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are blowing between the Bahamas and Cuba while light to gentle winds are observed across the remainder of the area N of 20N W of 55W. Slight to moderate seas are within these winds. Another cold front is over the central Atlantic and extends from a 1013 mb low pressure located N of area near 36N51W to 26N56W. E of the front, a surface trough is analyzed and stretches from 31N50W to a 1015 mb low pressure situated near 22.5N55W to 19N57W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near these features. An upper-level trough is present in this region. Farther E, another trough is along 28W from 20N to 30N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are on the E side of the trough axis to about 21W, from 24N to 29N. The pressure gradient between this trough and high pressure of 1034 mb located NE of the Azores is resulting in an area of fresh to strong NE to E winds N of 27N between 25W and 35W. Rough seas are within these wind speeds. Mainly moderate trades with moderate seas dominate the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, locally fresh NE winds are expected over the southern Bahamas and through the Windward Passage through Sat morning as low pressure prevails in the south-central Caribbean. Farther north, moderate to fresh W to SW winds will occur offshore of northern Florida by Sat morning, with winds expanding farther east into the central Atlantic through Sun morning, ahead of a cold front pushing off the east coast of the United States. The cold front is slated to move southeastward along the Florida Peninsula and into the northwestern waters this weekend into early next week, with moderate to fresh N to NE winds and building seas expected in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, widespread moderate to fresh trade winds will occur over much of the western Atlantic by midweek as high pressure builds off the coast of the eastern U.S.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services