Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Feb 3 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front reaches southwestward from the north-central Atlantic through 31N. Large NW swell behind this front is producing 12 to 18 ft seas across the western and central Atlantic, between 48W and 73E. As the front moves east-nrotheasward into the central and western Atlantic and weaken Tue through Wed, the NW swell can still produce 12 to 15 ft seas in both basins. By Thu night, the swell should shift west of 35W and north of 31N.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Bissau coast near Conakry, then extends southwestward to 05N18W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 05N18W to 01N43W to north of Belem, Brazil at 01N43W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 04N and east of 27W.
A surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1030 mb high to near Tampico, Mexico is dominating the entire Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft exist at the northeastern Gulf. Fresh to strong southerly winds with 6 to 8 ft SSA prevail at the northwestern and west-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, the high pressure will move toward the NE Gulf tonight allowing a fresh to strong southerly return flow to develop over the western Gulf. These winds will persist through late Tue. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf by early Wed morning, then sweep southward across the Gulf region through Thu evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front. Winds and seas will begin to diminish across the Gulf area Thu night into Fri.
A stationary front reaches southwestward from Puerto Rico to northern Colombia where it is helping to induce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong northerly winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are present across the central and part of the western basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft dominate the northwestern basin.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will persist in the central Caribbean through Wed, with winds gradually veering to the E as high pressure settles N of the area. An area of moisture associated with this frontal boundary will remain and move westward across the central Caribbean on Tue, reaching the coast of Nicaragua on Wed. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to reach the NW Caribbean late on Thu, bringing fresh to strong N winds and building seas. The front will move quickly across the basin, reaching from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night into Fri while weakening.
Please see the Special Features section for details on the significant swell event occurring over portions of the northwest tropical Atlantic.
A cold front in the central Atlantic extends from 31N53W to 21N63W where it then continues as a stationary front across Puerto Rico and into the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front north of 23N, with similar winds south of 20N including through the Windward and Mona Passages. Very rough seas, in long period NW swell, are found in the wake of the front as described above. Rough seas are ahead of the front to the north of 28N. Another cold front is well to the east, extending from the coast of Morocco at 25N15W to 25N32W. High pressure of 1024 mb dominates in the wake and across the remainder of the open waters. Rough to very rough NW swell covers the waters north of 25N and east of 40W in the wake of this cold front. Fresh to strong NE-E trades are found south of the front to 10N between Africa and 45W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across the remainder of the open waters including across the fresh to strong trades.
For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas are ahead of the front. The north part of the front will continue to move eastward while the southern part of it will remain nearly stationary in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands through early Wed, then the front will begin to lift N late on Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off NE Florida on Thu. Another round of fresh to strong winds and building seas is expected with the next cold front.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services