Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Apr 27 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
The monsoon trough is primarily over land across western Africa, and exits the coast of Mauritania and extends southwestward to near 10N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N22W to 03.5N31W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5S42W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 01N to 05.5N between 13W and 32W, and south of 01N between 35W and 50W.
GULF OF AMERICA A weak pressure pattern continues across the Gulf this afternoon, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure centered across the northeastern Gulf. Weak troughs are analyzed along the west coast of the Florida peninsula, and over the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin, except light and variable northeast portions. Wave heights are 2 ft or less in the northeast Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. No shower or thunderstorm activity is noted at this time across the entire basin as stable atmospheric conditions prevail. Recent land-based observations over southern Mexico indicate visibilities of 2 to 5 miles due to smoke from local agricultural and forest fires, and this is likely impacting the near shore waters, especially with the sun low on the horizon.
For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through at least the middle of the week supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds each evening over the east and central Bay of Campeche through the forecast period due to local effects related to a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh winds and moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida Mon night through Wed night as high pressure centered NE of Florida strengthens. By Monday night, SE winds are forecast to increase over the western Gulf and persist through mid-week.
A broad mid to upper trough reaches from the western Atlantic, across Cuba and the northwest Caribbean to Honduras and Nicaragua. Divergent southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the trough continues to support deep-layered moisture across the central and eastern Caribbean, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southwest Caribbean coastal waters of eastern Panama and Colombia. Farther east, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is producing scattered passing showers across much of the eastern Caribbean and adjacent islands east of 67W. Drier conditions are noted over the northwest Caribbean, under the influence of the northern flow aloft west of the trough. At the surface, the pattern is influenced by relatively weak 1021 mb high pressure north of the area, NE of the northern Bahamas, and the resident low pressure off Colombia. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate easterly flow across the basin along with 2 to 4 ft seas, except fresh NE winds off Colombia, and moderate to fresh E-NE winds in the lee of Cuba. Recent altimeter data shows seas of 5 to 7 ft off of Colombia.
For the forecast, the high pressure north of the basin combined with the Colombian low will support pulsing fresh winds at night in the Windward Passage, south of Cuba, and offshore Colombia, with moderate trade winds elsewhere. By Monday evening, winds will pulse to strong in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage, as high pressure north of the area strengthens.
Weak 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed over the western Atlantic NE of the Bahamas near 29N77W, just west of a persistent broad surface trough that extends northward from the central Dominican Republic toward Bermuda. Marine conditions continue to gradually improve across the waters west of the trough, with gentle or weaker winds and seas 5 ft or less W of the trough. Divergent flow aloft is assisting the development of a few clusters of showers and thunderstorms east of the trough, extending from the Atlantic coastal waters of Puerto Rico to near 27N60W. Farther east, a frontal boundary reaches from the eastern Azores Islands to 29N54W. Strong high pressure prevail north of the boundary across the N central Atlantic. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas W of 60W, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in N to NE swell E of 65W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will drift eastward and continue to weaken as a cold front across the SE U.S. moves south of 31N tonight, reaching from near 31N62W to NE Florida by Mon morning, from 31N57W to the NW Bahamas by Tue morning, and from near 31N55W to the central Bahamas Tue evening before weakening. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front. High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate most of the forecast waters the remainder of the work-week.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services