Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jan 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the coast of Texas tonight. Strong to near-gale force N winds following the front will rapidly reach gale-force near Tampico late Sat morning and afternoon, and in the Veracruz adjacent waters Sat evening through Mon morning. Winds may peak around 45 kt near Veracruz. Rough to high seas will quickly build, peaking at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz on Sun. The front will stall and weaken from western Cuba, to the Yucatan Channel, then to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve by Mon night into Tue.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near 07N13W, then runs westward to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues westward from 06N17W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 16W and 36W.
A Gale Warning is in effect for the Bay of Campeche area. Please read the Special Features section above for details.
A surface ridge dominates the Gulf region, while a cold front is approaching the Gulf states coastline from the north. The pressure gradient between these two features is supporting fresh to strong SE to S winds over the southern part of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted elsewhere. Moderate seas prevail across the basin, except for slight seas within about 120 nm of the Florida Peninsula.
For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds across portions of the southwest and central Gulf will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds tonight ahead of the next cold front. The front will move off the coast of Texas tonight. Please, see the Special Features section for more details.
Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt offshore Colombia. Rough seas are associated with these winds, that are the result of the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring south of Hispaniola while moderate to fresh NE to E winds are blowing across the Windward Passage, between eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate seas are within these winds. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to the gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low pressure over northern Colombia, then fresh to strong there afterwards. Rough seas will occur within these winds. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and Hispaniola adjacent waters. Strong winds will be likely pulsing at night over the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola through Sat night, with similar winds pulsing in the lee of Cuba tonight and Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail, except for moderate to fresh winds near the Gulf of Honduras tonight. A decaying cold front may move into or near the far NW Caribbean early next week where it will stall and wash out.
A surface ridge, anchored on a 1029 mb high pressure located well N of the area near 40N65W, dominates the western Atlantic, the State of Florida and the Bahamas. A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N55W and extends to 27N65W to 30N73W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted per scatterometer data in the wake of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring elsewhere W of 60W with slight to moderate seas. A 1015 mb surface low has developed near 27N55W. A surface trough is analyzed from the low to 20N60W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of these features N of 23N between 46W-59W. Strong winds are noted within this convection per satellite derived wind data. Farther E, high pressure of 1033 mb located between the Azores and the Madeiras Islands dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the Monsoon trough/ITCZ is generating a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds roughly from 10N to 25N E of 36W to the coast of west Africa with seas of 8 to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are noted over the remainder of the tropical Atlantic.
For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure building and sliding eastward in the wake of a cold front that extends from 31N56W to 31N73W will support moderate to fresh NE winds across the waters E of the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank, and the approaches to the Windward Passage through Sun, with strong winds near the Windward Passage. A new cold front will emerge off the NE Florida coast Sun. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning. Thereafter, the front will become stationary as it dissipates Mon night into Tue.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services