Tropical Weather Reports

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Tropical Weather DiscussionCorrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jul 13 2024

Corrected Tropical Waves section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 20N southward, and moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 11N between 32W and 40W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W from N of Puerto Rico to NW Venezuela, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 23N between the Leeward Islands and 68W, including the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from the Cayman Islands S across western Panama and into the East Pacific Ocean, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found over coastal waters along the Nicaragua and Costa Rica coasts.


A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Western Sahara and Mauritania, then curves southwestward across 13N23W to 09N37W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N37W across 08N45W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 08N to 11N between the Guinea/Sierra Leone coast and 21W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of either side of the ITCZ W of 41W.


Thunderstorms associated with a surface trough in the south- central Bay of Campeche have moved inland into Mexico. Elsewhere, ridging in association with a 1021 mb high pressure centered offshore Mobile Bay is dominating the Gulf this morning. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are evident at the central and eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas exist at the northeastern and central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected tonight and possibly again Sun night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula.


A trade-wind dominated pattern continues for the entire Caribbean Basin. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the Caribbean Basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are dominating the south- central and portions of the the SW basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are noted at the northwestern and southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across portions of the SW Caribbean into early next week and much of the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Seas will peak near 10 ft tonight. Fresh winds will pulse tonight in the Gulf of Honduras and in the Windward Passage.


A mid-level trough with an axis along 78W extends S through the Bahamas and is inducing scattered moderate convection. Refer to the Tropical Waves and ITCZ/Monsoon Trough sections for additional convection in the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh mainly E winds dominate waters 15N to 25N between 40W and 75W. Near the Canary Islands, gales have ended, but strong N to NE winds are ongoing N of 22N and E of 30W. For the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle northerly winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft in large NE winds are seen north of 20N between the Africa coast and 30W. For the Tropical Atlantic south from 09N to 15N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft exist. Gentle winds along with 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse tonight offshore Hispaniola, and E swell will bring 8 to 10 ft seas through tonight N of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services