Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Feb 24 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Large Western Atlantic Northwest Swell: A large set of NW swell has been generated by a deep low pressure area (previously a hurricane force low; now a storm force low) over the NW Atlantic. This NW swell is propagating across the NW discussion waters, with very rough seas of 12-16 ft over the waters W of a line from 31N62W to 26N71W. These very rough seas will shift eastward over the waters N of 26N, reaching as far east as 46W through midweek before subsiding below 12 ft.
Large Central Atlantic Northwest Swell: A large set of NW swell, generated by a former storm force low N of the area (currently a gale force low) is bringing very rough seas of 12-16 ft over the waters N of a line from 30N45W to 26N41W to 30N30W. These very rough seas will shift SE through midweek to cover the waters N of 20N and E of 30W before subsiding below 12 ft Thu.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 00N33W and to 02S45W. A few showers are noted near the ITCZ.
A 1033 mb high pressure system over the Mississippi Valley extends into the Gulf of America, resulting in fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas east of 90W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and rough seas are found in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. The dry and cold continental airmass moving across the basin sustain widespread stratocumulus clouds south of 25N, while generally clear skies prevail north of 25N. Moisture banking along the eastern flanks of the Sierra Madre Oriental may result in locally heavy rainfall.
For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually subside from NW to SE tonight into Tue as the high pressure shifts E-SE and into the Atlantic by early Wed. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop across the NW Gulf Tue night and expand across the SW and central Gulf Wed into Thu, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Thu evening. This next front is expected to stall from the Florida Panhandle to the Mexican coastal waters late Fri.
A cold front eastern from eastern Cuba to Central America. A few showers are noted near the front. Moisture banking against the mountainous terrain in Central America may result in locally heavy rainfall across Honduras, Guatemala and Belize. A pre- frontal trough is producing some showers over Hispaniola. Fresh to locally near gale-force northerly winds and rough seas are occurring behind the front. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are present in the remainder of the basin south of 15N. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent north of 15N.
For the forecast, the aforementioned front will slide southeastward, reaching NW Hispaniola to SE Nicaragua Tue before stalling Wed from eastern Hispaniola to near the Nicaragau-Costa Rica border. The strong winds and rough seas will gradually diminish Tue night through Wed as the front weakens. Broad high pressure will develop across the central and western Atlantic Thu and Fri and bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean.
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Significant Swells in the western and central Atlantic.
A strong cold front enters the basin near 31N62W and continues southwestward to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Strong to near- gale NW winds and very rough seas are N of 25N and W of the front. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate to rough seas are elsewhere W of the front. Fresh to strong winds, and rough seas are N of 26N and E of the front to 53W. Farther east, a 1025 mb high is centered near 29N45W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds prevail S of the high center due to the pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Moderate to rough seas are elsewhere across the discussion waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front is expected to move southeastward and reach from 31N60W to the NW Dominican Republic Tue morning, while weakening. The front will then stall from near 31N53W to the NE Dominican Republic early Wed, then drift W and dissipate through Thu. High pressure will shift into the Atlantic behind the front Tue night through Wed, and develop a broad ridge across the region Thu and Fri.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services