Tropical Weather Reports

in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA

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Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Apr 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Western Atlantic gale warning: A cold front has moved off northern Florida with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms ahead of it. Fresh to strong winds precede the front N of 29N, and are arriving behind the front also. Winds will increase to gale force late this afternoon over the waters N of 29N W of the front. The gale force winds will lift N of the area late tonight. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in the vicinity of the front will build rapidly, peaking around 14 ft near 31N. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W and extends southwestward to 03N24W. The ITCZ extends from 03N24W to just NE of Brazil near 01N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180-240 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, as well as from 01N to 07N between 48W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO

A cold front extends from just N of Cape Coral, Florida to just S of Tampico, Mexico with thunderstorms possible along it. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are behind the front, while gale force winds which were previously occurring offshore S Tamaulipas and N Veracruz having diminished below gale force. Light and variable winds are ahead of the front, except moderate to fresh W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 2 to 4 ft ahead of the front, and 4 to 7 ft behind the front, except 7 to 10 ft S of 25N and W of 93W.

For the forecast, the front will push SE of the basin by this evening with conditions gradually improving. High pressure will dominate in the wake of the front through mid-week. Winds will increase by the end of the week as the pressure gradient tightens, which will also build seas. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings.

CARIBBEAN SEA

High pressure N of the basin is supporting moderate to fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean, 3 to 6 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3 to 4 ft in the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, a broad subtropical ridge north of the Greater Antilles will support moderate to locally fresh trades across the central and eastern Caribbean, locally strong near the N coast of Colombia and near the Gulf of Venezuela at times. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to fresh from the Lee of Cuba to the Windward Passage, and offshore central Honduras at times. A decaying cold front may reach into the Caribbean N of 19N tonight, possibly bringing a brief period of active weather. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please read the Special features section for information on gale conditions expected across the NW waters, associated with a cold front.

Ahead of the above mentioned cold front, a ridge extends from 31N52W to near the northern Bahamas. Gentle winds are right under the ridge, with moderate to locally fresh trades elsewhere W of 50W. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft W of 50W. To the E, low pressure is just NE of 31N35W with associated developing gale conditions. A cold front extends from the low through another low, 1010 mb, near 28.5N32W to 21N42W where it transitions to a remnant trough continuing into the NE Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are N of 28N between 29W and 37W, along with 7 to 10 ft seas. Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front and near both lows. A ridge is to the E, from 31N24W to 18N47W, with light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas under it. Mainly moderate trades prevail across the remainder of the waters, along with 4 to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the cold front mentioned above will reach from 31N73W to near Stuart, Florida this evening, from just E of Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Tue evening, then stalling and dissipating to a trough from near 31N59W to the Turks and Caicos Islands by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will be near the front, mainly N of 27N, increasing to gale speeds N of 29N late this afternoon and spreading eastward through tonight. Winds will diminish below gale late tonight. Seas will build to 14 ft with the strongest winds. The remnant trough is forecast to linger through the remainder of the week with mainly tranquil conditions for the end of the week.

Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services