Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jan 30 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front has recently moved offshore the coast of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by this evening. The low will rapidly deepen through Sat as it moves into the western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it exits to the southeast of the basin on Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air across the Gulf that will support winds to gale-force near Veracruz tonight into early on Sat, and across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to E across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into the northern Gulf following the front.
Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will stall this morning over the NW forecast waters, then lift back N of the area through late this afternoon ahead of a complex low pressure system that tracks NE just offshore the Carolina coast. This system will send an unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off the northeast Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun, becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large area of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters N of about 23.5N, and the central Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. The front is expected to reach from near 31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from bear 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake of the front, large long-period NW swell will impact the waters N and E of the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these conditions.
Of note: With the aforementioned cold front, a potentially record breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week in South Florida. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sun, Mon and Tue morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far south as Miami Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, and continues southwestward to 02N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N30W to 01N40W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 23W-33W.
See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning expected to begin late tonight.
High pressure of 1022 mb is centered over the NE Gulf near 29N84W. It related gradient is allowing for moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas across the basin. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes reveal fairly light winds over most the basin. A cold front has recently moved into the NW Gulf from the southwest Louisiana coast to just offshore the Texas coast. A trough is analyzed south of the front from 27N97W to 22N97W and to just offshore Veracruz. Broken to overcast low stratus type clouds and patches of fog are evident south of 28N and west of 94W. Isolated showers are possible in this area of the Gulf.
For the forecast, the cold front that recently moved to just offshore the Texas coast will be followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas as it reaches from Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. The low will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it exits to the southeast of the basin on Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air across the Gulf that will support winds to gale-force near Veracruz Fri night into early on Sat, and across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to E across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into the northern Gulf following the front.
A shearline is analyzed from the Windward Passage to just northwest of Jamaica and continues to 17N80W and to just north of northern Panama near 10N82W. Isolated showers are possible near the shearline. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are found south of 19N and in the lee of Cuba. Seas behind the shearline are slight to moderate. Fresh to strong northeast winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades are over he north-central and eastern sections of the sea as seen in overnight scatterometer satellite data passes over those areas of the sea. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are present.
For the forecast, a unusually strong cold front is forecast to move into the northwestern Caribbean Sat morning and move southeastward merging with the remnants of the shearline from eastern Cuba to western Panama Sat evening. The cold front will reach from eastern Hispaniola to the northwest coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Colombia by early Tue. Strong to near gale-force N winds and rough seas are expected behind this front.
See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning for a portion of the western Atlantic. It is expected to begin on Sat afternoon.
A stationary front extends from 31N49W to 24N60W and to northwest Haiti. A trough is out ahead of the front along a position from 23N54W to the northeast Caribbean near 17N65W. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds with possible embedded isolated showers are noted south of 26N between 64W and 73W. Otherwise, high pressure dominates much of the SW N Atlantic, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft south of 25N and west of the aforementioned front. Moderate to locally strong W-NW winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are north of 28N and west of the aforementioned front to 75W. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 10 to 12 ft are north of 27N and east of the front to 38W.
The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered over the NE Atlantic that extends southeastward to Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are evident south of 20N and west of 35W. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and rough seas are occurring from 13N to 25N and east of 35W. Large northerly swell spreads across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the area. Rough to very rough seas are reaching the Madeira and Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight, but stall early Fri and lift north of the area through late Fri ahead of a complex low pressure system moving into the Carolina coast. This system will send an unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off the northeast Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun, becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large area of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters north of about 23.5N, and the central Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. The front is expected to reach from near 31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from bear 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake of the front, large long-period NW swell will impact the waters N and E of the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these conditions.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services