Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Nov 29 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A surface trough, currently analyzed from 15N to 25N along 44W, will merge with another surface trough currently analyzed from 06N to 12N along 50W. The combined trough will advance westward across the tropical and subtropical central Atlantic, and bring fresh to strong E winds across most of the waters from 15N to 30N east of 60W through Monday. These winds will build seas to 8-12 ft in the described area by Monday. Late on Monday, winds and seas will begin to diminish as the trough weakens and continues westward to 65W. This pattern is partly associated with a broad upper level trough across the central Atlantic.
The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N13W and extends to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends westward from near 05N19W to 07N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 09N east of 25W.
Strong high pressure centered over North Carolina provides for return flow across the Gulf, with fresh to strong wind speeds noted in the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel, and the NW Gulf offshore Texas. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-7 ft across the Gulf, with highest seas analyzed in the Straits of Florida, Yucatan Channel, and offshore Texas. Seas may locally peak to 8 ft in these areas, as indicated by recent satellite altimeter data.
For the forecast, aside from the NW Gulf waters, winds and seas will diminish tonight as high pressure slides east into the Atlantic. The cold front will move offshore Texas Sun, then stall along the far northern Gulf Mon. Low pressure will form along along the front Mon night near the Texas coast, then race NE toward the eastern U.S. coast. This will allow reinforcing cold air to send the front through the Gulf into the middle of the week. Looking ahead, the front may move N as a warm front ahead of another low pressure forming over Texas Thu.
Scattered showers continue along a stationary front that extends from central Cuba to central Belize. Recent scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong NW winds north of the front, including within the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, a more relaxed pressure gradient across the eastern and central Caribbean provides for moderate to locally fresh trades. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted in the central and SW Caribbean.
For the forecast, the front will dissipate and the high pressure shifts eastward into the western Atlantic late today, allowing winds and seas to diminish and conditions to remain relatively benign into the middle of next week.
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a Significant Swell Event in the Central Atlantic.
A stationary front extends from Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the front. Strong high pressure centered over North Carolina continues to force fresh to strong NE winds to the west of the front across the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. Seas are 8-11 ft from 25N to 29N between 66W and 76W. Seas are 4-7 ft elsewhere in the W Atlantic. Elsewhere across the basin, aside from the SPECIAL FEATURE, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-7 ft seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually dissipate through Sun, and high pressure north of the front will shift eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak front will stall off the northeast Florida coast Mon, then lift northward Mon night. Expect southerly winds and building seas north of 29N and west of 75W Tue as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead, these strong southerly winds will shift eastward north of 28N into the middle of next week, ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Tue night into Wed. This front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Wed. Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a trough moving westward into the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands Sun into Tue night.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services