Tropical Weather Reports

in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA

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Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Tropical Storm Alberto: The first tropical storm of the 2024 Hurricane Season, named Alberto, forms over the western Gulf of Mexico. Alberto is centered near 22.2N 95.1W at 19/1800 UTC or 160 nm E of Tampico Mexico, moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will reach the coast of northeastern Mexico early Thursday morning. Some slight strengthening is forecast today or tonight before the center of Alberto reaches land. Rapid weakening is expected once the center moves inland, and Alberto is likely to dissipate over Mexico Thursday or Thursday night. Deep convection has formed near the center of Alberto, and a well defined band of moderate to strong convection is within about 200 nm to the southeast of the center.

Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas. Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern Mexico in areas of onshore winds north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Alberto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

TROPICAL WAVES

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W/23W from 05N to 18N. The wave is moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 12N within 180 nm east of the wave axis.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W/39W from 03N to 17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 03N to 07N between 34W and 42W.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W/54W south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave originated in the midlatitude and moved southward to become embedded within the tradewind easterlies. As typical for these tropical waves that originate in the midlatitude, it is embedded within dry air so there is no significant convection noted at this time.

The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W south of 19N moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is noted over the Caribbean waters in association with the wave.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N22W. The ITCZ extends from 10N22W to 09N40W to 07N50W to the coast of Guyana near 06.5N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 10N and 14N , and from 03N to 10N between 22N and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO

Please read the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Alberto and its impacts. Alberto is the main feature over the basin.

Aside from impacts discussed above, strong to near-gale force winds cover much of the waters W of 87W, with fresh to strong winds E of 87W, including the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 8 to 13 ft are noted N of 22N and W of 87W. Seas in the 5 to 8 ft range are S of 22N and W of 87W, including the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 8 to 10 ft dominate the waters E of 87W.

For the forecast, Alberto will move to 22.2N 96.4W this evening, inland to 22.3N 98.3W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant low near 22.4N 101.2W Thu evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system through early next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.

CARIBBEAN SEA

The circulation around Tropical Storm Alberto combined with a ridge that dominates Florida and Cuba supports fresh to strong southeast winds in the northwestern Caribbean, west of 83W where seas are in the 7 to 10 ft range. Moderate to fresh trades are seen E of 78W based on recent scatterometer data while gentle to moderate easterly winds are blowing elsewhere. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft across much of the remainder of the Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over parts of Cuba and surrounding waters. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed over the SW Caribbean, particularly S of 13N between 76W and 83W. This convective activity is reaching the coast of western Panama.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas over the NW Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds and moderate seas during the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the eastern and central Caribbean through Sat, pulsing to strong speeds over the south-central basin tonight through Fri night. Winds across these two regions will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A surface trough extends from 29N68W to a 1012 mb low pressure located near 26N70W to 22N71W. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms persist in the vicinity of the trough. A stationary front enters the forecast waters near 31N52W and extends westward along 29N60W to near 29N68W. The pressure gradient between these features and a ridge to the N is producing fresh to strong NE winds N of a line from 30N60W to the NW Bahamas. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted within these winds. Elsewhere N of 20N, winds are mainly gentle to moderate, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are observed across the tropical Atlantic with seas of 4 to 6 ft. The main exception is in the vicinity of the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, where fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 8 to 9 ft prevail. Meteo France is forecasting near gale force winds in the forecast region of Agadir, along the coast, soon.

For the forecast west of 55W, environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some gradual development of the system mentioned above during the next few days while it moves westward or west- northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeastern United States by the latter part of this week. Regardless of development, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas up to 12 ft will prevail across the waters N of 26N through Thu. High pres N of the area and associated ridging will dominate the region afterwards, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds the remainder forecast period.

Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services

Summary for Tropical Storm Alberto

As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 19

HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...

  • Location: 21.9, -95.3
  • Max sustained: 40 mph
  • Moving: WSW at 9 mph
  • Min pressure: 995 mb

Key message:

  1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts occuring far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.
  2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria.
  3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast through Thursday.
  4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.