Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Feb 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Gale-force winds associated with a deep low pressure at the north- central to east Atlantic continues to generate large, long- period NW to N swell across the central subtropical Atlantic waters. As a result, expect seas of 12 to 16 ft from 26N to 31N between 30W and 55W. This area of very rough seas should gradually shift eastward through Thu night, then move east of 35W on Fri.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast near 07N12W, then extends southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 03N20W through 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 00N to 05N between 10W and 37W.
A cold front has entered the NW Gulf, extending from the south- central Louisiana coast to Deep South Texas. A pre-frontal trough is also analyzed from near Mobile Bay to about 26N93W. Scattered showers are seen along and near the pre-frontal trough. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are ahead of the front and N of 26N, while fresh to strong N to NE winds are behind the front. Winds across the remainder of the Gulf are gentle to moderate or weaker. Seas range from 2-5 ft behind the front to 1-3 ft across the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, a cold front is over the NW Gulf and extends from SW Louisiana to southern Texas. The front will sweep southward across the Gulf waters through late Thu morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front. Winds and seas will begin to diminish across the Gulf area from W to E Thu night into Fri as high pressure settles over the NW Gulf. High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the basin through the upcoming weekend.
A stationary front extends from the northern Leeward Islands WSW to near 15N78W. A surface trough is also analyzed along 80W from the SW Caribbean to the Cayman Islands. Both of these features are helping to induce some shower activity south of Jamaica. Recent scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong E winds across much of the central Caribbean, driven by the pressure difference between high pressure N of the area and the Colombia Low. Seas are 7-10 ft in this region. Moderate to fresh trades persist elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft in the eastern, NW, and SW Caribbean, with areas closer to the Yucatan Channel seeing seas of 2-5 ft.
For the forecast, a stationary front extends from the Leeward Islands westward across the E and central Caribbean to near 14N78W. The front is helping to induce some shower activity. Fresh to locally NE to E winds are noted over the central Caribbean, on either side of the front, forecast to dissipate later today. A surface trough, remnants of the front, will move W and reach the coast of Nicaragua today where it will remain through Thu. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean late on Thu morning and will merge with the trough. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow this front, forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night and from Haiti to Panama Fri morning where it will start to weaken. Fresh to strong N winds with rough seas in the SW Caribbean associated with the front will persist through Sat, diminishing to moderate to fresh speeds Sat night into Sun.
Please see the Special Features section for details on the significant swell event.
A cold front extends from 31N32W to 22N51W, where it becomes a stationary front that then extends to the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong winds are seen behind the large frontal boundary and also ahead of the cold front, generally N of a line running from the Mona Passage to near 31N10W. A strong pressure difference between a large gale-force low N of the region and a high near 25N25W is driving the large swath of fresh to strong winds. Rough to very rough seas are also seen N of the aforementioned line.
High pressure of 1026 mb is SW of Bermuda, supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds N of 25N. Light to gentle winds are also ongoing in the vicinity of the high near 25N25W. Much of the remaining basin is seeing moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6-9 ft prevail, aside from regions N of the Bahamas where seas are 4-7 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front is over the SE waters and runs from 20N55W to the Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong NE winds are N of the front to about 23N. High pressure, with a 1026 mb center located near 29N69W, dominates the remainder of the forecast area. The front will remain nearly stationary through tonight, then begin to lift N on Thu while weakening. Another cold front will move off NE Florida on Thu. Another round of fresh to strong winds and building seas is expected with this system, which is forecast to extend from near Bermuda to Hispaniola by Fri morning, and from 25N55W to Puerto Rico on Sat. Gusts to gale force are possible on either side of the front mainly across the waters N of 29N Thu night and Fri. Strong low pressure building N of the forecast region could bring gale force winds and very rough to high seas across the N waters E of 74W Sat through Sun.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services