Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jan 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a 996 mb low pressure located near 35N70W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed winds to gale force both ahead of and following the front north of 28N, embedded in an area of strong to near-gale force conditions north of 25N and west of 65W. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. Winds will diminish below gale force accordingly through early Fri. Elsewhere, widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the front through Fri. Rough to very rough seas are also expected ahead and behind the front through Fri. Another cold front may impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend.
Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
The monsoon trough extends 09N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 04N between 10W and 15W.
1022 mb high pressure is centered over the western Gulf near 24N96W, following a cold front that is now moving through the northwest Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NW to N winds across the far eastern Gulf and Straits of Florida. Moderate N winds extend across the central and southwest Gulf, and light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere over the west-central and northwest Gulf. Rough seas in the form of northerly swell with 8 to 11 ft wave heights are noted across much of the southern Gulf, with 5 to 7 ft seas elsewhere except 1 to 3 ft near the northern Gulf coast.
For the forecast, marine conditions will improve from NW to SE tonight. A reinforcing front will bring a surge of fresh to near- gale northerly winds and rough to locally very rough seas over the basin this weekend. Gales are possible off Tampico, Mexico Sunday. Conditions will improve markedly on Mon. However, the pressure gradient will tighten again Tue into Wed, resulting in fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the basin.
A cold front extends from central Cuba across the northwest Caribbean into central Belize and northern Guatemala. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong N winds following the front over the northwest Gulf and Yucatan Channel. A plume of rough seas follows the front as well through the Yucatan Channel, with buoy 42056 in the northwest Caribbean reporting wave heights to near 8 ft. Farther east, the subtropical ridge extends from the western Atlantic to north of Hispaniola. There is enough of a gradient south of the ridge to support fresh to locally strong trade winds across the southern Caribbean south of 15N. Wave heights in this area are 4 to 6 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along and within 90 nm west of a surface trough reaching from off central Hispaniola to the central coast of Colombia.
For the forecast, the front is expected to stall from E Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure gradient may tighten later in the upcoming weekend and early next week leading to increasing winds and building seas across the basin ahead of a reinforcing front. A front will arrive in the NW Caribbean early next week and the tight pressure gradient behind it will sustain fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas during most of next week. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia Fri night, reaching near-gale force at night starting Sat night and into early next week.
Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.
Outside of the area of gales described above in the Special Features section, a ridge extends from the north-central Atlantic to north of Hispaniola. Farther east, a broad upper low is centered near 22N37W. An associated weak surface trough may be starting forming along 27N between 20N and 25N. Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 9 ft seas cover a large area north of 12N and east of 55W, south of the ridge. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach from near Bermuda to the southeast Bahamas Fri morning, and from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are found ahead and behind of the front. Gale force winds are occurring north of 29N. These winds will shift eastward through Fri, before lifting north of our area Fri afternoon. Seas will gradually diminish into the weekend. Another cold front may impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend into early next week, supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services