Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Feb 02 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force winds ahead and following an Arctic cold front that extends from 31N59W to the Mona Passage and into the SW Caribbean will diminish to fresh to near gale force speeds by Mon morning. Currently seas are in the range of 18 to 28 ft (5.5 to 8.5 M) behind the front N of 24N and W to near 74W, except W to near 78W N of the Bahamas. Seas of 8 to 12 ft (2.5 to 4 M) are W of 74W to the Bahamas and also N of the Bahamas W of 78W. Seas ahead of the front are 10 to 14 ft (3 to 4 M) E to near 55W and N of 28N. These sea conditions will slowly subside to between 12 ft and 16 ft (4 to 5 M) on Mon, then to 8 to 10 ft (2.5 to 3 M) on Tue.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 10N15W. and continues southwestward to 04N19W. where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to 01N40W and to northern Brazil at 01S48W. No significant convection is noted.
A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure building across the area, with a 1031 mb high center located near 29N94W, and a deepening low off the New England coast is maintaining moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the SW Gulf. Seas are still quite high SE of a line from 27N84W to 25N90W and 19N95W. where they range from 8 to 12 ft (2.5 to 4 M) in NW to N swell. The highest of the seas are found near and in the Yucatan Channel. Seas to the NW of this same line are in the range of 5 to 7 ft in N to NE swell, except for lower seas of 3 to 5 ft offshore the waters of southwestern Louisiana and 2 to 4 ft over the far NW Gulf.
satellite imagery shows a scattered to broken stratocumulus cloud field situated over the eastern Gulf S of 28N and E of about 89W. Broken to overcast mostly low clouds with possible embedded light rain patches and isolated light showers are confined to the western part of the basin S of about 24N and W of 94W. These clouds extend to inland Mexico.
For the forecast, the seas that area SE of the aforementioned line will subside by Mon morning. Afterward, a high building eastward will support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas for the central and eastern Gulf. For the western Gulf, a period of fresh to strong southerly winds are anticipated from Mon evening through Tue morning. Another cold front is expected to enter the northern Gulf on Wed, then sweep southward across the Gulf through Thu night. The front will bring fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas.
A strong Arctic cold front extends from the central Atlantic to just NW of Puerto Rico, continuing southwest to near 11N77W. Strong to near gale-force NW to N winds and rough seas follow the front to near 84W while fresh winds are west of 84W. Seas to 12 ft are within the area of the strong to near gale force winds. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in N swell are within the area of fresh winds. Moderate to fresh trades are E of front S of 14N and 70W, and light to gentle E to SE winds are N of 14N and E of 70W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across these areas of the basin. satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection along and near the front N of 15N, and also S of 15N between 71W and 75W.
For the forecast, the Arctic cold front will move across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Mon, will stall from the northern Leeward Islands to the south-central Caribbean Mon night into Tue morning and dissipate Tue night. Strong to near-gale force N to NE winds and rough seas behind this front will gradually shift eastward from the western Caribbean to the central Caribbean through Tue. Winds and seas are forecast to gradually diminish across the central Caribbean by Wed evening. On Thu, another cold front is expected to approach the NW Caribbean and cause building seas and winds there toward the next weekend.
Please see the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Gale Warning for sections of the western Atlantic.
Elsewhere, a cold front enters the far eastern Atlantic near 31N18W and continue to 27N30W, where it transitions to a stationary front to a weakening stationary front to near 26N36W. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are W of the front to near 30W and N of 28N. Seas are in the range of 7 to 10 ft (2 to 3 M) in NW swell with these winds. The weather pattern for the rest of the basin is basically controlled by a 1027 mb high center analyzed N of the area near 33N37W. Its related gradient is generally allowing for mostly fresh trades to exist S of 24N and E of the Leeward Islands. Seas are in the range of 8 to 10 ft (2.5 to 3 M) in NE to E swell over this area. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicate moderate or weaker winds across the remainder of the basin. Latest altimeter satellite data passes and buoy observations reveal that rough seas cover the majority of the remainder of the waters, slightly lower from 25N to 28N E of 51W to vicinity of the Canary Islands and the coast of Africa.
For the forecast west of 55W, aside from the Special Features outlook on seas conditions associated to cold front mentioned above, another cold front is forecast to move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Thu, resulting in building winds and seas north of 25N through the next weekend. Mariners are urged to remain cautious through Mon, and stay up to date with the latest forecasts.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services