Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jul 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale- force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. Rough to very rough seas 12 to 14 ft will develop during the times of peak winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
A well defined eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 22.5W, south of 18N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Recent satellite imagery and scatterometer data suggest a 1012 mb surface low is located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands near 13N22W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 09.5N to 14.5N between 19W and 25W. Significant development of this system is not expected before environmental conditions become even less favorable for development over the weekend, while it moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the next 7 days.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43.5W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is depicted with this wave.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17W and continues southwestward to a 1012 mb low pressure near 13N22W to 09N42W. The ITCZ extends from 09N47W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 07N to 09N between 26W and 34W. Similar convection is depicted from 07N to 10N between 49.5W and 58W.
A 1021 mb high pressure is centered southeast and offshore of the mouth of the Mississippi River, and is forcing moderate to locally fresh easterly winds over the Bay of Campeche as shown by recent satellite scatterometer data. Seas area 3 to 6 ft across this area. Moderate E-SE winds are present in the remainder of the western waters, where seas are 2-5 ft. North and near the high, gentle to moderate NW winds and 2 to 3 ft seas prevail. Elsewhere, slight to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. Upper level low pressure across the east Gulf is supporting a cluster of moderate to strong convection along the W coast of Florida from 25N to 28N and west of 85.5W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also across the Mexican coastal waters from Cabo Rojo to offshore of Veracruz.
For the forecast, high pressure will meander across the northern Gulf through early Mon. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and night. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere. Upper level low pressure across the eastern Gulf will support thunderstorms across portions of the NE Gulf through Sun.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it meanders over the northeastern Gulf, northern Florida, or the extreme western Atlantic near northeastern Florida early next week. The chance of formation through the next 7 days is low.
A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Seas are estimated at 10 to 14 ft in the area presently. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.
The Atlantic subtropical ridge persists north of the Caribbean Sea, forcing strong to near-gale easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very rough seas are found in these waters. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure ridge oriented along 27N and the Colombian low will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia tonight and Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near- gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon before contracting to south of 15N through Tue. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening in the Windward Passage.
An extensive subtropical ridge persists across the tropical Atlantic north of 24N, anchored by 1025 mb centered near 28N49W and extends westward to the Bahamas. Saharan dust and mid- latitude dry air continue to dominate the basin, suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. Fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are occurring off the SE Bahamas, Haiti and eastern Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are prevalent south of 24N and west of 30W to the Lesser Antilles. Scattered clusters of moderate convection are noted from offshore of Cape Canaveral northeastward toward Bermuda.
Meanwhile, in the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted north of the monsoon trough and east of 32W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident south of the monsoon trough and east of 26W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge axis extends westward along 27N and will drift slightly northward through Sun night, then weaken early next week as a broad surface trough develops between 50W and 60W and shifts westward through mid week. This weather pattern will support moderate to fresh trades south of 24N Sun night, and gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each evening and night across the waters N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover.