Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Feb 23 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to gale force off the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas will build to 12 ft with these winds. Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas are expected during the daytime hours.
Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to the equator at 22W. The ITCZ continues from the equator at 22W to the equator at 48W. Scattered moderate convection is from S of 04N and E of 33W.
A 1022 mb low pressure is centered near 27N96W. A warm front extends from the low pressure eastward to 26N90W. A cold front extends from the low pressure south to 19N95W. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds prevail across the Gulf west of 90W, with locally near-gale force winds possible near the low pressure center. Seas are 5-7 ft west of 90W, with 8-11 ft seas analyzed in most of the W Gulf from 18N to 28N west of 95W. Elsewhere, east of 90W, mainly moderate NE to E winds prevail with 3-5 ft seas. In the Straits of Florida, trades are fresh to locally strong in the wake of a surface trough, with 5-8 ft seas. The aforementioned surface trough is along 85W from the western tip of Cuba north to 27N.
For the forecast, the low will track NE through early Sun night, then quickly E to SE toward southern Florida on Mon with the cold front trailing from the low as it moves across the basin. Fresh to strong winds are expected around the low pressure while moderate to fresh winds are expected behind the boundary. Weak high pressure will settle over the central waters Tue through Wed night in its wake with tranquil marine conditions across the basin. Another cold front may sweep across the basin Thu and Thu night.
A Gale Warning is in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please, refer to the Special Features section above for more details.
Outside of the gale warning area, the latest scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh trades across the central Caribbean, including near the southern tip of Hispaniola and within the Windward Passage. Seas are 5-7 ft, increasing to 7-10 ft in the GALE WARNING area. Fresh NE winds prevail in the lee of Cuba, building seas in the NW Caribbean to 5-7 ft. Mainly moderate trades prevail in the E Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds will pulse in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola through early Sun. Moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere in the western Caribbean will diminish by early next week as a cold front slips SE of the Yucatan Channel. The front will reach from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Mon night with fresh winds behind it, then stalling and dissipating from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by early Wed. Fresh to near gale-force winds offshore northern Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week, and in the Tropical N Atlantic where moderate to locally rough seas will prevail.
A cold front extends from near 31N48W southwestward to the southern Bahamas, then the eastern tip of Cuba. Fresh to strong N to NE winds, and seas 8 ft or greater follow the front north to 31N and west to 75W, including near the Bahamas. Gentle trades are ahead of the frontal boundary. Seas in excess of 12 ft are north of 27N between 47W and 62W. The remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is dominated by 1029 mb high pressure centered near Madeira. Moderate to fresh trades prevail in waters east of 50W, with 8-11 ft seas in long period (12-14 sec) NW swell. All other areas have moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, the weakening front will manage to slip a bit more southward, before stalling and dissipating Sun. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will lead to fresh to strong NE winds S of 25N and W of the front, including the Straits of Florida through tonight. Rough to very rough seas behind the front will subside across the waters W of 55W by late Sun night. Broad low pressure from the Gulf of America will approach South Florida Mon, and track NE to N 31N by late Tue night dragging a trailing cold front across the western part of the area. Fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail ahead of the front and low Tue through Wed. By late Wed night, marine conditions may improve under a broad and weak pressure pattern. Yet another front may move offshore the SE United States Thu night.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services