Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jan 25 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front currently across the NW Gulf will sweep SE across the rest of the basin through Mon evening. Strong arctic high pressure building behind the front is expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of the Gulf Sun and Sun night, gale force winds over the offshore waters of Tampico through Mon morning, and gales over the waters near Veracruz Mon morning through around midnight Mon. Seas are expected to quickly build to 8 ft across the basin tonight, reaching to 12-17 ft over the SW Gulf late on Mon. Conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves SE into the NW Caribbean and high pressure builds across the region. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W to the coast of NE Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by a surface trough just north of the ITCZ, is from 03N to 10N between 35W and 50W.
A strong cold front extends from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the front. Strong to near-gale force NW winds and 7-9 ft seas are behind the front across the NW Gulf waters. As of 1500 UTC, a warm front previously analyzed in the NE Gulf has lifted inland over the Florida Panhandle. Ahead of the aforementioned strong cold front, fresh to strong SE to S winds prevail with 4-7 ft seas. Winds may locally reach near-gale force speeds in the north-central and NE waters.
For the forecast, the strong cold front will sweep across the rest of the basin through Mon evening. Strong arctic high pressure building behind the front is expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of the Gulf today through Mon, gale force winds over the offshore waters of Tampico from late tonight through Mon morning, and similar winds over the waters near Veracruz from Mon morning to late Mon night. Seas are expected to quickly build across the basin today and tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected ahead of the front, mainly in the north central and NE Gulf sections. Conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure builds settles across the northern Gulf. Mariners are advised to keep alert with the latest forecasts.
Subtropical Atlantic high pressure centered near the Canary Islands extends a large ridge and modest pressure gradient across the Caribbean. The latest satellite scatterometer indicates gentle to moderate trades across the basin, and recent satellite altimeter data supports an analysis of 3-6 ft seas across the basin. The exceptions to the prevailing winds and seas, as usual, is in the south central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, where scatterometer indicates locally strong trades and seas to 7 ft.
For the forecast, broad high pressure over the eastern Atlantic will maintain a ridge westward into the central Atlantic supporting mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Tue, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside into early next week, with seas lingering to 8 ft through early Wed. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras by late Tue into Wed, weakening to a shearline Thu. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh on Wed, and increasing to fresh to strong Wed night and Thu as stronger high pressure builds southward across the N Gulf of America.
A cold front is draped along 29N, from 50W to 70W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are north of the front. Seas from 8-11 ft are north of a line extending from 31N50W to 28N71W to 28N80W. Elsewhere, 1030 mb subtropical high pressure centered near the Canary Islands dominates the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. The strong pressure gradient across the waters supports fresh to strong trades south of 25N and east of 45W. These persistent strong winds have built seas to 8-11 ft across the deep tropics, including on approaches to the Lesser Antilles. 12-14 ft seas are across the east Atlantic waters east of 25W between the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop over the NW forecast waters late this afternoon through early Mon in advance of a strong arctic cold front that is expected to move offshore northeast Florida on Mon morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. The front will reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and to west Cuba Mon evening, from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Tue evening, then begin to become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 31N50W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected W of the front Mon afternoon through Tue afternoon. The frontal boundary will begin to dissipate on Thu as another strong cold front moves out across the western forecast waters, reaching from near 31N60W to the SE Bahamas by Thu evening.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services