Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jun 07 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 02N to 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the wave from 05N to 06N.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Gambia near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 10N19W. The ITCZ extends from 10N19W to 05N40W and then from 05N42W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 42W-52W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 28W-31W and between 35W-40W.
Relatively weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic westward to near 94W. It is maintaining fairly tranquil conditions throughout. The associated gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate southeast winds across the basin, except for light winds over the NE gulf and fresh northeast to east winds along the northern Yucatan Peninsula and over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are in the range of 2 to 4 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft over the central Gulf sections and in the Bay of Campeche.
satellite imagery shows isolated small showers and thunderstorms over the western Bay of Campeche, and from 20N to 23N west of 94W.
For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a ridge into the eastern Gulf through Sun, then build modestly westward into the central Gulf through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh, locally strong, northeast to east winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds across the western and south- central Gulf through Mon between a trough over northern Mexico and Atlantic high pressure.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the eastern portion of the Pacific monsoon trough are found across the SW Caribbean. Meanwhile, low-level convergence is noted in the SE Caribbean, resulting in shower activity impacting the Windward Islands and nearby waters.
The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures present to its south is supporting fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean and mostly fresh trades elsewhere. Fresh to strong trades are in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas across the basin are 5 to 8 ft (1.5-2.5 m).
satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection confined to the southwestern section of the sea associated with the eastern portion of the Pacific monsoon trough. An area of scattered showers and e found across the SW Caribbean. Isolated showers moving westward with the trades are over the far southeastern section of the sea, south of about 14N and east of 65W to the vicinity of the Windward Islands.
For the forecast, weak high pressure north of the region and that is located to the northwest of Bermuda will shift northeastward and into the north-central Atlantic through the weekend. The Atlantic ridge will then build southwestward toward he Bahamas and South Florida late Sat through the middle of next week. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas across most of the central basin and Gulf of Honduras through Sat, then increase and spread to across most of the basin Sat night through the middle of next week, except in the SW Caribbean where winds will be weaker. Seas will build to rough with the increasing winds, as well as in the Tropical N Atlantic by early next week.
A tropical wave is analyzed over the basin. Refer to the section above for details.
A trough extends to near 31N80W from a developing gale low that is just east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. A cold front extends from the same low southwestward to 31N76W and to 29N79W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are ahead of the front to near 71W and north of 30N. Moderate to locally fresh southwest winds and moderate seas are evident north of 29N and west of 73W. Farther east, a stationary front enters the basin through 31N58W and continues southwestward to near 26N66W. A trough then extends from 26N65W to near 23N70W. Isolated showers are possible near these boundaries. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are occurring north of stationary front.
The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of high pressure. The associated gradient is allowing for moderate to fresh trades between 35W and 60W. Seas of 4-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m) are over these same waters Similar winds and seas are evident east of 35W and from 12N and 25N. Fresh to locally strong north winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft (1.5-2.5 m) are noted north of 28N and east of 14W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will lift back north tonight and dissipate. Weak high pressure northwest of the front will shift NE and into the central Atlantic through Sat. Atlantic high pressure will then build modestly west-southwestward into the Bahamas and South Florida Sun through Tue, then weaken slightly by mid-week. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse each afternoon and evening offshore of Hispaniola early next week, with pulsing moderate to fresh winds off northeastern Florida and elsewhere south of 22N.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services