Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jan 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front that extends from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico, will move SE and out of the basin by Sun night. Strong to near gale-force winds will follow the front. A corridor of gales will develop tonight in the west-central Gulf behind the front and spread eastward into Sun across the central and east central Gulf, immediately following frontal passage. These gales will end over the east-central Gulf early Sun evening. Additional gale conditions will develop offshore Veracruz, Mexico, late tonight and continue through Sun. Rough seas will encompass the basin behind the front, with very rough seas through the western and southern Gulf building tonight and continuing through Sun night. Peak seas over the central Gulf will be around 12 ft, with seas as much as 15 ft near Veracruz. Conditions will improve Mon as high pressure builds southward into the region.
Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.
Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras: Heavy rainfall is expected over the Gulf of Honduras Sun through the middle of next week as a shear line or pre-frontal trough interacts with low-level moisture in the region. The heaviest precipitation is expected on Tue and Wed, with the most persistent rain leading to totals of 8 to 12 inches over the southwestern Gulf of Honduras, and local amounts over 12 inches will be possible. Widespread amounts of 2 to 6 inches are expected over the rest of the region. Please consult products from local meteorological services for additional information.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 01N39W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 05N east of 20W.
Please read the Special Features section for information on the Gale Warnings in the southwestern basin.
A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to E Mexico near 22N97W. Scattered showers are noted along and ahead of the front in the central and northeastern basin. Recent scatterometer satellite data and METAR data show fresh to strong NE winds are occurring in the wake of the front, and buoy data over the northwestern Gulf show 8-9 ft seas are accompanying these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SE winds are noted with seas 2-4 ft over the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front that extends from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico, will move SE and out of the basin by Sun night. Strong to near gale-force winds will follow the front. A corridor of gales will develop tonight in the west- central Gulf behind the front and spread eastward into Sun across the central and east central Gulf, immediately following frontal passage. These gales will end over the east- central Gulf early Sun evening. Additional gale conditions will develop offshore Veracruz, Mexico, late tonight and continue through Sun. Rough seas will encompass the basin behind the front, with very rough seas through the western and southern Gulf building tonight and continuing through Sun night. Conditions will improve Mon as high pressure builds southward into the region. Looking ahead, building high pressure over the SE United States should cause strengthening NE to E winds over most of the Gulf on Tue and Wed.
An increasing pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High building north of the Caribbean and low pressure over N Colombia is supporting widespread fresh to strong trades over the central and eastern basin, as seen via recent scatterometer satellite data. Altimeter satellite data and buoy data show rough seas, peaking near 10 ft, over the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail over the northwestern basin. Elsewhere, an E swell over the central Atlantic is supporting rough seas of 8-9 ft east of the Lesser Antilles and through the passages into the eastern Caribbean.
For the forecast, strong trades will prevail in the central Caribbean this weekend, before diminishing some next week as a cold front enters the NW basin. Offshore Colombia, the trade winds will pulse to near gale each night through early next week. The aforementioned cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel Sun night, then stall from eastern Cuba to the coast of Honduras Mon night, before gradually dissipating. This will lead to thunderstorms and likely heavy rainfall over Honduras and adjacent waters early next week, with fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas behind the front through Tue night.
A trough extends from the central Atlantic near 31N60W to 24N71W, and recent scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring north and west of this feature as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Rough seas occurring in this region are noted via SOFAR buoy data. Elsewhere, a 1034 mb Bermuda-Azores High building near 34N37W is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds along the periphery of the ridge, generally north of 15N. Rough seas cover much of the open Atlantic as per altimeter data and SOFAR data. Farther east, a cold front extends from northwest Africa to 27N35W, and fresh to strong NE winds and rough to locally very rough seas are occurring near this front.
For the forecast west of 55W, a building Bermuda-Azores High will enhance the trades up to fresh east of 65W for the next few days. A cold front will emerge off the SE United States coast Sun morning, accompanied strong to near gale-force winds north of 27N. Winds diminish Mon, and the front will weaken and stall from Bermuda through The Bahamas by Tue. However, with high pressure building over the SE United States, an increasing pressure gradient W of the frontal boundary will boost NW winds to fresh to strong in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida Straits into the middle of next week.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services