Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Feb 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure east of the Bahamas and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will support near-gale to gale-force ENE winds offshore Colombia near Barranquilla tonight. Seas under these winds are expected to be 9 to 11 ft (2.5 to 3.5 m).
Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large NW swell will cause 12 to 13 ft (3.5 to 4.0 m) seas north of 30N between 55W and 65W from early Thursday morning through late Thursday night. Seas are forecast to drop below 12 ft by early Friday morning as the swell decays.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra Leone, then extends southwestward to 02N22W. An ITCZ continues from 02N22W across 00N27W to 01S37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 01N to 04N between 18W and 23W, and from 00N to 02N between 29W and 32W.
A frontal boundary meanders along the Gulf coast states from southern Texas to the Panhandle of Florida. Scattered showers are seen south of this feature across the northwestern and north- central Gulf, north of 28N. A surface trough is causing similar weather at the central Gulf. Otherwise, a 1022 mb high at the west-central Gulf and its related ridge dominate much of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the Gulf through Fri, bringing gentle SE winds. Southerly winds will increase to moderate to fresh Fri night into Sat ahead of a cold front that will moves cross the western and central Gulf Sat night and Sun. Strong winds and rough seas are possible in the northern Gulf with this frontal system.
See the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning.
A surface trough is generating scattered showers south of Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Strong to gale-force NE winds and 9 to 11 ft seas are evident at the south-central basin. Fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are seen at the north-central and parts of the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressure across Colombia will relax some Thu to allow fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia into early next week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail through the weekend. Rough seas over Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles associated with long-period N well will continue to decay into Thu.
Please see the Special Features section at the beginning about rough seas across the western and central.
Two surface troughs are producing patchy showers just northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and well northeast of the Lesser Antilles from 18N to 22N between 44W and 51W. A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from the southern Azores across 31N35W to 22N52W. No significant weather is associated with this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.
Fresh to strong SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted north of 28N and west of 60W. Farther south, light to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 8 ft in moderate to large NW swell are present from 24N to 28N and west of 50W, along the Atlantic Ridge axis. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft in large NW swell exist north 20N between 35W and 50W. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N/24N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and 8 to 10 ft swell dominate. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in mixed swells prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, strong SW to W winds N of 28N, ahead of a cold front that will spread south of 28N late tonight, then move slowly southeast through the area into Sat. Rough to very rough seas will accompany the strong winds as they progress eastward ahead of the front across northern waters. The front will gradually weaken, and the strong winds will diminish by Fri. Strong S to SW winds will develop offshore Florida Sun ahead of another cold that will move off the southeastern U.S. Mon.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services