Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Mar 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning for their Canarias marine zone until 14/09Z. Please visit website: https://wwwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more detail.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf by Sun night. As the front moves across the basin through early next week, gale-force NW winds will develop in the wake of the front mainly W of 94W. Rough seas are expected with these winds. These conditions will dissipate by late Mon.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 270 nm on either side of the ITCZ.
A stationary front extends southwestward from Cape Sable in southwest Florida to beyond Cancun, Mexico. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present near the aforementioned front, and along the Mexico and Texas coastline. Surface ridging prevails across the basin in the wake of the front, anchored by a high pressure centered N of the area with slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast, the front will lift back to the N today as high pressure over the region begins to shift eastward. A strong cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Sun night, quickly reaching the southeastern Gulf by Mon night and slow down as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean by late Tue. Strong to near gale-force N winds will follow the front along with seas rapidly becoming rough. Gale-force winds will be possible in the NW Gulf, and offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico on Sun night and Mon. The winds offshore Veracruz may attain brief gusts to storm-force. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the region into midweek.
The pressure gradient between north-central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia is supporting pulsing fresh to strong trades across the south-central basin. Rough seas are expected with these winds. Fresh E trade winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere E of 83W, while moderate E winds and slight seas are noted W of 83W.
For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south-central basin through the morning hours. The high pressure will shift eastward today, with a brief weakening of the gradient allowing for fresh to strong trades to be confined to south of 13N between 72W and 76W. Afterward, new high pressure will build westward across the central Atlantic next week, with the resulting pressure gradient leading to fresh to strong trades and building seas extending from the Tropical North Atlantic to the eastern and central Caribbean, including through passages.
A stationary front meanders southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N69W and the northwest Bahamas to beyond the southern tip of Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 50 nm on either side of the front. Farther east, a surface trough embedded within the trade winds is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms east of the Windward Islands from 10N to 16N between 51W and 54W.
Gentle with moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident north of 23N between 55W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. To the east and southeast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are noted north of 05N between 35W and 55W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 23N between 55W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate ENE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure will build west- southwestward toward the Bahamas through the weekend before it will retreat eastward early next week in response to the next cold front. The front will move off the U.S. southeastern coast Mon evening, then slow down and stall from near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will develop over the NW forecast waters starting Sun afternoon ahead of the front. Fresh to strong northwest winds will follow the front through Tue. To the south, rough seas produced by long-period E swell will impact the waters E of the Bahamas early next week before slowly subsiding during midweek.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services