Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jan 22 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, then runs southwestward to 05N16W. An ITCZ continues from 05N16W across 02N30W to near the Amazon Delta area. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up near and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 00N to 05N between 10W and 20W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near the ITCZ from 01N to 03N between 27W and 31W, and from 00N to 04N west of 40W.
A surface trough is triggering scattered showers at the central Gulf. Otherwise, a modest surface ridge extending southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico dominates most of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the eastern and central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the western Gulf.
For the forecast, the modest ridge will be replaced by a stronger high pressure from the north on Fri night and Sat. An arctic cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf this weekend, followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front may bring gale conditions first offshore of Tampico Sun night, then offshore of Veracruz on Mon. North winds may reach to near-gale force across portions of the northwestern Gulf Sun and Sun night.
A surface trough embedded within the trades is triggering widely scattered showers across the northeastern basin. Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted at the north-central and part of the southwestern basin, including the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, NE to E winds will pulse to near-gale force over the offshore waters of Colombia at night through into early next week. Broad central Atlantic high pressure will maintain mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central basin as well as the Tropical North Atlantic waters through early next week. Large N swell over the Tropical North Atlantic will slowly subside through the weekend, however, seas there will remain at about 8 ft in an E swell.
Two surface troughs are generating scattered showers off northeastern and central Florida to 72W, including the northwest Bahamas. Another surface trough is producing scattered showers from 25N to 30N between 57W and 62W. The leading edge of a trade- wind surge is causing scattered moderate convection east of the Lesser Antilles from 14N to 19N between 50W and 56W.
A 1034 mb high at the central Atlantic is supporting gentle to moderate NNE to E to SE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in easterly swell exist north of 27N between 35W and 72W. West of 72W and north of 25N, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted. Farther south from 04N to 25N/27N and west of 35W, fresh to strong NE to E trade winds and seas at 8 to 12 ft are present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high at the central Atlantic will continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas east of about 75W today. The pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will continue to support fresh NE winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through the remainder of this morning. An arctic cold front will move offshore northeastern Florida Sun night, preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services