Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jan 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extending southwestward from the Florida Big Bend to just south of Tampico, Mexico, will continue to move southeastward and out of the Gulf by Sun night. Strong to near gale-force NW to N winds are found behind the front. A corridor of gales to strong- gale force winds will develop tonight from near Tampico eastward to the central Gulf, then spread southeastward into the western Bay Campeche near Veracruz on Sunday morning. Seas under the strongest winds will rise to between 12 and 15 ft. Conditions are going to gradually improve starting late Sunday afternoon at the west-central Gulf near Tampico, and then near Veracruz by late Sunday night through Monday morning.
Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.
Significant Heavy Rainfall at Belize, Honduras and Guatemala: Interaction between a pre-frontal trough and an approaching cold front along with abundant tropical moisture will increase the potential for heavy rainfall across Belize and Honduras from Sunday through Thursday, especially from Tuesday through Wednesday. Heaviest rainfall is forecast to be near northern Honduras and southeastern Belize. This will greatly increase the chance of flashing and urban flooding, and mudslides in hilly terrains. Please consult products from your local meteorological services for additional information.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near Conakry, then extends southwestward to 03N24W. An ITCZ continues westward from 03N24W across 00N30W to 01N42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 05N between 10W and 21W. Widely scattered showers are occurring near and up to 200 nm north of the ITCZ.
Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warnings.
A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to near Poza Rica, Mexico. Scattered showers are seen up to 100 nm southeast, and up to 150 nm northwest of this boundary. Recent scatterometer satellite data and local marine observations show fresh to strong NE winds along with 7 to 10 ft seas north of the front. South of the front, surface ridging is supporting light to gentle with locally moderate winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft, except moderate to fresh NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas at the eastern Bay of Campeche.
For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move southeastward and out of the Gulf by Sun night. Outside the Gale Warning area mentioned in the Special Features section, strong to near gale-force northerly winds will follow the front. Conditions will improve Mon as high pressure builds southward into the region. Looking ahead, building high pressure over the southeast United States should cause strengthening NE to E winds over most of the Gulf on Tue and Wed.
Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy Rainfall surrounding the Gulf of Honduras.
A surface trough accompanied by surging tropical moisture is generating scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms at the far west-central and northwestern basin, including waters near the Cayman Islands. Otherwise, a robust trade-wind pattern continues across much of the basin. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale ENE winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft are present at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted at the north-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are evident at the eastern and part of the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin, including the Windward Passage.
For the forecast, strong trades will prevail in the central Caribbean this weekend, before diminishing some next week as a cold front enters the northwestern basin. Offshore Colombia, the trade winds will pulse to near-gale force each night through early next week. The aforementioned cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel Sun night, then stall from eastern Cuba to the coast of Honduras Mon night, before gradually dissipating. This will lead to thunderstorms and likely heavy rainfall over Honduras and adjacent waters early next week, with fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas behind the front through Tue night.
Two surface troughs are generating widely scattered showers from 24N to 29N between 64W and the northwest/central Bahamas. Well farther southeast, another surface trough embedded within the trades is causing scattered moderate convection from 03N to 06N between 38W and 47W. A pronounced upper-leve low near 20N41W is triggering widely scattered moderate convection from 12N to 19N between 40W and 48W. Divergent winds to it southeast are enhancing scattered moderate convection from 10N to 14N between 27W and 34W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.
A narrow ridge extending southwestward from a 1036 mb Azores High to near central Florida is supporting gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate easterly swell north of 24N and west of 60W. To the south from 20N to 24N and west of 60W, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted. Further east, fresh to strong ENE to ESE winds and seas at 8 to 12 ft dominate north of 20N between 35W and 60W. For the tropical Atlantic from 03N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE to E winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are found. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed large swells prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned Azores High will sustain fresh trades east of 65W through Thu. A cold front will emerge off the southeast United States coast Sun morning, accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds north of 27N. Winds will diminish Mon as the pressure gradient in the region diminishes. The front will continue to weaken and stall from Bermuda through the Bahamas on Tue. However, with high pressure building over the southeast United States, an increasing pressure gradient west of the frontal boundary will enhance NW winds to between fresh and strong in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida Straits into the middle of next week.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services