Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Jan 21 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1032 mb high pressure over the central Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These two features will remain in place through the middle of the week, before the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Drainage flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force at night through Thu morning. Rough seas are forecast with these winds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts with a shearline extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Periods of heavy rainfall will continue through early Wed in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be likely.
Please consult products from your local meteorological services for additional information.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.
A strong ridge over the eastern United States forces fresh to locally near gale-force easterly winds and moderate to rough seas east of 90E, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found west of 90E to a line from southern Texas to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE of the United States supports fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. These marine conditions will persist through Wed. The next cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf Fri night into Sat followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front, may bring gale conditions first near Tampico, then near Veracruz on Mon.
Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a Gale Warning offshore Colombia.
A shearline extends from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras. Fresh to strong NE winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail W of the shearline and north of 17N. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate seas are found off southern Hispaniola and NE Caribbean. Easterly swell is reaching the Atlantic water passages of the NE Caribbean, allowing for localized rough seas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident.
For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE of the United States will continue to promote fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas across the NW Caribbean through Wed. These winds are transporting abundant tropical moisture into northern Honduras supporting periods of locally heavy rainfall through mid-week. A surface trough, and associated area of moisture, will move across the Leeward Islands late on Wed, and over Puerto Rico on Thu, likely reaching Hispaniola on Fri. This is forecast to increase the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the islands and surrounding waters.
A stationary front enters the discussion waters near 31N63W and continues to eastern Cuba. A few showers are noted near this boundary. The pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the eastern United States and the aforementioned front supports fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas west of the front and south of 29N. The remainder of the basin is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge SW of the Azores, forcing fresh to near gale-force easterly winds and rough to locally very rough seas south of 27N and east of 65W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Divergence aloft east of the Lesser Antilles sustains a large area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially from 14N to 20N and between 45W and 57W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas east of 65W through Thu. A stationary front extends from 31N64W to eastern Cuba. The front will lift N and gradually dissipate through Thu. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the SE of the United States and the front will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds over the western Atlantic W of the front, in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through Wed.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services