Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Dec 17 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Southwest N Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure is forecast to develop Wed night near 29N59W, along the stationary front that currently extends from 29N55W southwestward through the SE Bahamas, then across east central Cuba. Gale force winds are expected to begin across the W semicircle of the low center early Thu morning then increase to 40 kt Thu evening and night as the low moves E-NE. The low is then expected to move NE on Fri, and lift N of 31N and the forecast area. Peak seas are expected to build to 15-18 ft Thu night, with a large area of seas 12 ft and higher from 27.5N between 54W and 60W by Thu night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information this event.
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 07N11.5W and continues westward to 05.5N23W. The ITCZ extends from 05.5N23W to 04N36W to 03.5N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 01N to 07N between 11W and 38W. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 02N to 05N between 50W and 52W.
A surface trough continues over the western Gulf N of 20N and inland across SE Texas, and is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 24N, and west of 91W. Elsewhere, a 1027 mb high pressure just NW of Bermuda extends a ridge westward into the southeastern U.S. and is controlling the low level wind flow across the Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are across the SE Gulf, and strongest through the Straits of Florida and along the NW coast of Cuba due to a diffuse surface trough across the NW Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 9 ft across these waters, highest in the Florida Current. Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail over the western Gulf where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the basin.
For the forecast, fresh E winds and rough seas prevail across the SE Gulf waters, including the Straits of Florida, and will gradually decrease today. A ridge along about 32N will dominate the Gulf region through Thu, with winds veering to the S and SW ahead of the next cold front, forecast to move into the NW Gulf Thu evening. This front will reach from SW Florida to NE Mexico Fri evening, then begin to lift northward and dissipate through Sat. High pressure will move into the NE Gulf Sat night and Sun.
A surface trough is analyzed offshore Nicaragua and Costa Rica and extends into the waters off the NE coast of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is noted across these waters and extends inland. Gentle to moderate NE winds generally prevail across the basin S of 20N and west of 80W, where seas are 3 to 5 ft.
A stalled frontal system just N of the basin and into est central Cuba has produced a slightly weaker than normal pressure gradient across the basin, with moderate to fresh winds in the central Caribbean, locally strong winds are offshore northern Colombia, with 1009 mb low pressure near the coast. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 5-8 ft in the S-central portion, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Thu as high pressure shifts eastward into the western Atlantic. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will persist over the tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the eastern part of the basin through Thu night. High pressure will strengthen north of the basin Thu night into the weekend to bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central and southwest Caribbean.
Please see the Special Features section for more information on a developing Gale Warning in the Southwest N Atlantic.
A stationary front extends from 31N50W southwestward through the SE Bahamas, then extends westward across east central Cuba. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted S of 29N to along the front, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere NW of the front. Recent buoy and altimeter data indicate seas of 8-14 ft in NW-N swell to the north of the front to 77W, with 3-5 ft seas offshore northern Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 300 nm N of the front and E of 70W. A broad ridge centered on a 1027 mb Bermuda High prevails along 34N, to the north of the front. To the east, a 1030 mb high pressure is noted N of the eastern Atlantic waters near 32N25W with a ridge reaching SW of the high and ahead of the front to 26N53W. The tight pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ supports a large area and broad fetch of fresh to strong E winds south of 23N and E of the Lesser Antilles, with resultant seas of 8-13 ft. Fresh to strong winds are noted S of 31N and through the Canary Islands to the E of 20W, supporting seas of 8-16 ft. Refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website at https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details. Mainly moderate winds and 5-8 ft seas are across the remainder of the waters which is primarily between the front and the ridge axis.
For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from 29N55W southwestward through the SE Bahamas, then extends westward across east central Cuba. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail north of the front to about 29N. The front and these winds will generally persist through this evening before diminishing W of 65W. Large NW to N swell will continue to move through the regional waters through tonight before subsiding from NW to SE through Thu. Frontal remnants are expected to continue across the NE zones through tonight, when low pressure is forecast to develop along the boundary, near 29N60W. Gale force winds are expected to develop across the W semicircle of the low center Thu through early Fri as the low moves E-NE and deepens, before gradually exiting the forecast area Fri night. The next cold front will move into the NW waters Fri, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat morning, then stall and weaken from 31N60W to the central Bahamas Sat evening. Another cold front may move off NE Florida by Sun night.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services