Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jan 26 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front continues to move E-SE across the Gulf this morning, and extends from near Yankeetown, Florida southwestward to just west of Puerto Dos Bocas, Mexico along the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf. Strong to near gale- force N winds and rough to very rough seas are found behind the front. Earlier scatterometer satellite data indicated that northerly gales were occurring offshore Tampico. Recent observations inland of Puerto Veracruz show fresh to strong sustained winds with gusts to near gale force, This is indicative of sustained gales just offshore. These gale conditions are forecast to continue offshore Tampico through this morning and offshore Veracruz through late Mon night. The cold front will sweep across the rest of the basin tonight through Mon evening. Seas are expected to quickly build across the Gulf region through Mon reaching 16 or 17 ft across SW portions. Marine conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure settles across the northern Gulf. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 17W and 24W.
Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the western and SW Gulf.
A cold front extends from near Yankeetown, Florida southwestward to just west of Puerto Dos Bocas, Mexico along the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf. Modified arctic air is spilling across the entire basin behind the front to produce a blanket of cold air stratus behind the front. Numerous showers are likely along the leading edge of the colder air, but no significant thunderstorm activity is evident at this time. Wave heights are up to 13 ft at buoy 42055 in the west-central Gulf, hinting of wave heights to as high as 15 ft farther west in the area of gale force winds closer to the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz. Ahead of the front, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas to 6 ft prevail.
For the forecast, gale conditions are forecast to prevail offshore Veracruz through late tonight. The cold front will sweep across the rest of the basin through this evening with very rough seas expected to quickly build across the basin today and tonight. Marine conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure settles across the northern Gulf. The high will shift southeastward Thu as low pressure develops in the far western Gulf along the next cold frontal boundary. This front is expected to reach from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz by Fri evening. Another round of gale force winds near Veracruz will likely begin late Fri night in the wake of this front.
Generally fair conditions prevail across the Caribbean this morning, except for a few showers moving quickly in the generally fresh trade wind flow across the eastern and central parts of the basin, south of the dominant subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. Strong winds may be pulsing off the coast of Colombia between Cartagena and Barranquilla, where seas to 9 ft area likely. Seas are likely 5-8 ft elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean. An overnight altimeter satellite pass confirmed large combined seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands. This is due to along fetch of fresh trade winds supporting 8 to 9 ft NE to E swell. Gentle breezes and 2 to 5 ft are evident elsewhere across the northwest Caribbean and the far southwest part of basin.
For the forecast, high pressure E of Bermuda will slide SE and weaken through Tue and maintain a ridge N of the Caribbean basin, supporting mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside, with seas lingering near 8 ft through Wed afternoon. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late tonight and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by late Tue into Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh on Wed, and increasing to fresh to strong Wed night and Thu as stronger high pressure builds southward across the N Gulf of America. Mainly moderate winds will prevail over the NW Caribbean Thu night.
A ridge extends from 1027 mb high is centered east of Bermuda near 33N53W southwestward across the northwest Bahamas, south Florida and through the Straits of Florida. The ridge is shifting east ahead of a strong cold front that is just starting to move off the coasts of Georgia and northeast Florida. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are ahead of the front between northeast Florida and Bermuda north of 29N. Farther east, a cold front just passing the Azores extends to 31N35W to 28N50W, then is stationary south of the high pressure to near 31N65W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are noted across the deep tropics south of the ridge, specifically south of 22N, with gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 8 ft seas noted elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds over the NW forecast waters along with rough seas to 10 ft will continue through late morning as the strong cold front continues to move offshore northeast Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop along the front. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas are expected W of the front this afternoon through Tue afternoon. The front will reach from near 31N73W to the NW Bahamas and S Florida this evening, from near 31N57W to the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba Tue evening, then begin to become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 28N55W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Wed evening. The frontal boundary will begin to dissipate on Thu as another cold front moves out across the western forecast waters, reaching from near 29N55W to the central Bahamas Fri morning, before stalling N of 24N Fri night. Elsewhere. a broad ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure near 35N54W southwestward to east of the Bahamas. A stationary front extends across the NE zones from 28N55W to 31N64W supporting gentle to moderate winds.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services