Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jan 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extending from northern Florida through the central Bay of Campeche will progress southeastward today and exit the basin this evening. Gale force NW winds and very rough seas will immediately follow the front over the central and eastern Gulf this afternoon, with gale force winds continuing offshore of Veracruz into this evening. Winds will diminish below gale force by tonight, with rough seas subsiding from north to south tonight through Mon morning. Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.
Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras through northern Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through midweek as abundant tropical moisture interacts with a pre-frontal trough in the northwest Caribbean and a cold front approaching the region from the northwest. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur early Tue through early Wed in the Gulf of Honduras into northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be possible. Please consult products from your local meteorological services for additional information.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14.5W and extends to 01.5N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01.5N20W to 01.5S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N east of 23W, and within 250 NM of the ITCZ.
Please read the Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning, valid into this evening.
A cold front extends from northern Florida near 29N83W southwestward through the central Bay of Campeche near 19N95.5W. Gale force N to NW winds are noted via scatterometer satellite data along and up to 75 NM behind the front from the northeastern through southwestern Gulf, including strong gales offshore of Veracruz. North of the gale force winds, widespread fresh to strong N winds prevail. Very rough seas of 12 to 15 ft are occurring in tandem with the gales, as observed via recent altimeter satellite data and buoy data, with widespread rough seas of 8 to 11 ft noted elsewhere behind the front. South and east of the front, moderate to fresh NW winds and slight seas prevail.
For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE and out of the basin tonight. Strong to gale-force NW to N winds and rough to very rough seas follow the front. Gale conditions are expected to end early this evening. High pressure will build southward into the region by Mon with improving marine conditions from N to S. However, strengthening high pressure over the SE of the United States will bring fresh to locally strong NE to E winds particularly over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida Tue and Wed.
Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy Rainfall surrounding the Gulf of Honduras through midweek.
A surface trough over the northwestern Caribbean, extending from 19.5N86W to 15.5N84W, is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms in the region. Gusty and erratic winds and rapidly building seas can be expected near this activity. Elsewhere, widespread fresh to strong trade winds are noted via scatterometer data over the central and eastern Caribbean as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between low pressure offshore of northern Colombia and high pressure to the north. Recent altimeter data show rough seas cover the southwestern through eastern basin, with locally very rough seas to 12 ft noted offshore of northwestern Colombia. Farther east, rough seas in E swell prevail over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles and through the passages into the eastern basin.
For the forecast, strong trades will prevail in the central Caribbean today, before diminishing some tonight into mid-week as a cold front enters the NW part of the basin. The front will move through the Yucatan Channel tonight, then stall from eastern Cuba to the coast of Honduras Mon night, before gradually dissipating. This will lead to showers and thunderstorms and likely heavy rainfall over Honduras and adjacent waters through mid-week, with fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas behind the front through Tue night. Offshore Colombia, the trade winds will pulse to near gale force each night through Tue night, then fresh to strong winds will persist the remainder of the forecast period.
A cold front entering the northwest tropical Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong NW winds and building seas offshore of northern Florida. Farther east, recent scatterometer data show fresh to locally strong S to SE winds are occurring as the pressure gradient increases between the front and a strong 1036 mb Azores high pressure. This ridge is dominating much of the open tropical Atlantic, supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds east of 65W. Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted via altimeter and buoy data over the open waters, with very rough seas of 12 to 13 ft occurring from 18N to 25N between 28N and 43W. Elsewhere, a cold front extending from northwest Africa to 31N20W is supporting strong to near-gale force N winds and 12 to 15 ft seas near and north of the front.
For the forecast west of 55W, a strong Atlantic high pressure will enhance the trades up to strong speeds east of 65W through Thu. A cold front moving off the SE of the United States this morning will bring fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas north of 27N through tonight. In addition, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the front will also support fresh to strong southerly winds N of 27N and ahead of the front through tonight. The front will reach from 31N70W to the central Bahamas by Mon morning, then stall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Tue before dissipating on Wed. High pressure building over the SE of the United States will boost NE winds to fresh to strong speeds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida Straits into the middle of the week.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services