Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Southwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of America near 22N96W. Continued development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is anticipated to form over the next day or so while it drifts eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. Regardless of development, fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 19N to 26N between 93W and 97W. Chances of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours are high.
A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with an axis near 64.5W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 60W and 65W. The wave is also enhancing fresh to strong E to SE winds across the central Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters, as noted on recent scatterometer satellite data.
A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is near 18W, extending from 06N to 16N. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the northern end of the wave axis.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and extends to 14.5N27W to 07.5N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N40W to 06N46W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 17N between 23W and 40W.
Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Invest AL92.
A 1008 low is located over the northeastern Gulf near 29.5N86.5W, and a stationary front extends toward the southeast toward the Big Bend of Florida, and fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are occurring north of these features. The stationary front also extends toward the west and southwest, paralleling the northern and western Gulf Coast. A surface trough then continues from the tail of the front along the E Mexico offshores to Invest AL92 low to the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to locally strong NE to NW winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are noted north and west of these features, just offshore of Texas and eastern Mexico. Strong convection in the vicinity of AL92 also suggest stronger gusty winds and rough seas are likely. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from the south-central basin into the eastern bay of Campeche, and mainly moderate breezes are noted in this region. Otherwise, ahead of these boundaries, winds are moderate or weaker, and seas slight to moderate.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a trough along the E Mexican offshores through today. Weak surface ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late today ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf through Wed before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, continued development of a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is expected, and a tropical depression is anticipated to form over the next day or so while it drifts eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. Regardless of development, fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night.
Fresh to locally strong NE to SE winds are occurring over the eastern basin as noted on recent scatterometer data, associated with a tropical wave progressing westward. Strong thunderstorms are also noted in this vicinity. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trade winds are occurring across much of the rest of the basin, supported by the pressure gradient between a 1009 mb low over the south-central Caribbean and high pressure to the northeast. Locally fresh winds and 5-7 ft seas are occurring offshore of northwest Colombia. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are offshore Panama associated with the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon trough.
For the forecast, weak ridging SE of Bermuda will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central Caribbean through this morning. Afterward, a cold front will move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the basin through early Thu. High pressure is forecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh speeds Fri, then moderate to fresh Fri night through Sat night.
A 1013 mb low pressure is located off the northeastern coast of Florida near 30.5N76.5W, and a stationary front extends eastward to 31N71.5W, and southwestward into central Florida. Mainly moderate NE to E winds are noted north of the front, though fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring immediately north of the low, as noted on recent scatterometer data. Elsewhere, a surface trough in the central Atlantic extends from a 1015 mb low near 31N37W to 25N40W to 27N45W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are occurring south and east of this feature, while fresh to locally strong NW to W winds are occurring to the north and west. Recent buoy and altimeter data depict 3 to 5 ft seas in this region. Weak ridging prevails over the rest of the subtropical and tropical waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front will transition to a cold front and move slowly eastward across the area today, then stall from Bermuda to NE Florida tonight into Wed. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong speeds again off NE Florida late on Fri as a low pressure, possible tropical cyclone, moves northward across the Gulf of America.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover.