Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Feb 25 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Western Atlantic Significant Swell: Large NW swell propagating across the western waters is supporting very rough seas of 12 to 16 ft over the waters N of 27N and between 46W and 62W . These very rough seas of 12 ft and higher will propagate southeastward through Thu, reaching the waters as far S as 22N and as far E as 45W today, before subsiding below 12 ft tonight.
Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell: Large N-NW swell propagating across the central and eastern waters is merging with easterly trade wind swell across the Tropical Atlantic, which is supporting very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft from 16N to 20N and E of 40W. This swell will continue to spread southeastward over the remainder of the eastern Atlantic waters S of 25N through Thu, but will subside to less than 12 ft by late this afternoon. Very rough seas to near 12 ft will linger over these far eastern waters into the upcoming weekend.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 06N and between 05W and 14W.
1022 mb high pressure continues offshore of the SW coast of Florida and extends a ridge W-SW to central Mexico. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressures over Mexico and Texas supports moderate to locally strong southerly winds and moderate seas from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz. Peak seas have built to 7 ft across the central Texas coastal waters. Moderate to locally fresh SE to E winds and seas of 2-4 ft are noted within 90 nm of the western coast of Yucatan. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, the high pressure across the area will shift E-NE across the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong southerly return flow across the NW Gulf will expand across the SW and central Gulf this evening into Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Thu night. This weak cold front is expected to sink slowly southward across the north half of the Gulf Fri through Sat night and gradually dissipate.
A dissipating stationary front extends from the eastern Dominican Republic to near the Costa Rica-Panams border. No precipitation associated with this feature is noted at this time. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge near Florida and lower pressures associated with the frontal boundary sustain fresh to strong NE winds within 300 nm of the front. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass, with the strongest winds occurring within the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate seas are found in the south- central and SE Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, behind the front, strong winds and rough seas prevail from the Windward Passage to near 84W. The front will gradually dissipate today while the strong winds veer NE to E and diminish through this evening. Broad high pressure will develop across the central and western Atlantic Wed through Sat and bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, rough seas in mixed northerly swell will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic throughout the next several days.
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Significant Swell in the western Atlantic, and another Significant Swell in the central and eastern Atlantic.
A weakening cold front extends from 31N53W to eastern Hispaniola. Scattered showers continue along this boundary. The fresh to locally strong S-SW winds ahead of the front have dissipated, however, rough to very rough seas to 14 ft in NW swell continue to 50W, north of 28N. Behind the front, 1024 mb high pressure is located just east of the NW Bahamas and extends a ridge eastward to the front. A recent ASCAT pass noted moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas are present south of 25N and west of the front through the Windward Passage. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is seeing moderate or weaker winds, and moderate to rough seas in NW to N swell to the E of 65W.
The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive subtropical ridge centered north of our waters. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and western Africa forces moderate to locally strong and rough to very rough seas over much of the central and eastern Atlantic.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure is building in the wake of the weakening cold front. Rough to very rough seas to 15 ft in NW swell prevail between the front and the Bahamas. The front is expected to stall from near 29N55W to the Dominican Republic today, before drifting W and dissipating Thu. High pressure will shift NE and into the central Atlantic behind the front today through Thu, and develop a broad ridge across the region that is expected to persist until Sat. A weak front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sat and move slowly southeastward and weaken through Sun. Seas will gradually subside through Thu night, with seas lingering around 8 ft over the SE waters through the end of the period.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services