Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jan 27 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front has moved southeast of the basin and into the NW Caribbean overnight, and extends from the NW Bahamas southwestward across central Cuba and into south central Belize. 1039 mb high pressure across SW Louisiana and SE Texas extends a ridge south and southeastward behind the front, forcing strong northerly winds across the entire basin, except across NW portions, where moderate N to NE winds prevail. NW gales near Veracruz has diminished slightly overnight, to around 35 kt, where seas are 16-18 ft, as confirmed by overnight satellite altimeter data. Very rough seas of 12 ft and higher prevail elsewhere S of 20N across most of the Bay of Campeche, and near the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and through the Yucatan Channel. Gales off of Veracruz are expected to diminish to 25-30 kt by sunrise. Marine conditions will improve from NW to SE across the basin today through Wed as the front moves farther southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure settles across the northern Gulf.
Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong W Atlantic cold front extends through 31N69W southwestward across the NW Bahamas and through central Cuba. Behind the front, strong high pressure across the NW Gulf of America extends east and southeastward behind the front, and is forcing strong NW to N winds and rough seas across the Atlantic waters. Northerly gales have been occurring overnight near and offshore NE Florida to the Cape Canaveral area over and east of the Gulfstream, and are expected to diminish below gale-force by sunrise. Seas in this area area are 10-13 ft in N swell moving against the Gulfstream current. The front will move from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba this evening, then become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 29N55W to the SE Bahamas and east Cuba Wed evening. As this occurs, winds will gradually diminish from NW to SE today and tonight. Moderate to large NW swell generated behind the front will gradually move SE of this area tonight through Wed.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Significant rainfall event: A cold front is entering the NW Caribbean and forecast to stall from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by late today into Wed. As the front becomes nearly stationary over the NW Caribbean, the northerly winds behind it will transport abundant tropical moisture into the Gulf of Honduras and northern Honduras, where the onshore flow will favor the development of showers and thunderstorms. Deep tropical moisture will remain in place across southern Mexico and northern Central America supporting more shower and thunderstorm activity with rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, and localized amounts of 4 to 6 inches due to orographic effects. The heaviest rainfall is expected in southern Mexico late tonight into Tue, and in northern Guatemala and Belize Tue into early Wed, and well as in northern Honduras.
Please follow your local weather office for more details.
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03N22W. The ITCZ extends from 03N22W to 00N34W and to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed south of 06N and between 08W and 51W.
Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the SW Gulf.
A strong cold front extends has moved southeast of the basin and into the NW Caribbean overnight, and extends from the NW Bahamas southwestward across central Cuba and into south central Belize. 1039 mb high pressure across SW Louisiana and SE Texas extends a ridge south and southeastward behind the front, forcing strong northerly winds across the entire basin, except across NW portions, where moderate N to NE winds prevail. Seas of 8 ft and greater are generally S of a line from Cedar Key, Florida to 28N88W to near Tampico, Mexico. Recent buoy observations show seas of 10-12 offshore of the Tampa bay area. Peak seas across the basin of 15-18 ft are over the SW Gulf across and downwind of gales off of Veracruz.
For the forecast, marine conditions will improve from NW to SE today through Wed as the front moves farther southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure settles across the northern Gulf. The high will shift southeastward on Thu as low pressure develops in the north- central Gulf along the next cold front. This front is expected to reach from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz by Fri evening and move SE of the basin Sat. Another round of strong northerly winds will follow this front, with gale- force winds near Veracruz likely to begin Sat morning.
A cold front has moved into the NW Caribbean overnight, extending from central Cuba to south central Belize. A few clusters of moderate showers are along the front. Strong northerly winds to 30 kt and rough seas are noted behind the front, as depicted by overnight satellite scatterometer data. Seas of 10-12 ft are currently across the Yucatan Channel. Meanwhile, the remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. Fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas to 9 ft are found off Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the north- central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will slide E-SE and weaken through Tue night and maintain a ridge N of the Caribbean basin. This pattern will support fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early Wed, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night through Thu. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside through Wed afternoon. The cold front over the NW basin will move SE today and begin to stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras this evening through Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh Wed morning, then increase to fresh to strong Wed afternoon through Thu as stronger high pressure builds southward across the N Gulf of America. Mainly moderate N winds and seas will prevail over the NW Caribbean Thu night through Fri night. Looking ahead, a new strong cold front will move into the NW basin Sat.
Please read the Special Features section about the Gale Warning off NE Florida.
A strong cold front extends from 31N69W across the NW Bahamas and into central Cuba. Scattered showers are noted along this boundary. Fresh to near gale-force N winds and rough seas prevail behind this boundary. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are found ahead of the front to 60W and north of 28N. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 30N40W to the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas in a mix of E and N swell are found south of 25N and east of 65W to 30W. A cold front is found SE of the central Atlantic high, from 31N20W to 28N35W, with moderate to fresh winds on both sides of the front.
In the far NE Atlantic, a strong low pressure off Ireland is producing fresh to strong W winds and rough seas to the area north of the Canary Islands and east of 25W. Northerly swell associated with this feature is progressing southward, producing seas of 8-16 ft north of 25N and east of 55W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba this evening, then become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 29N55W to the SE Bahamas and east Cuba Wed evening. The frontal boundary will meander across this area through Thu, when new high pressure across the Gulf of America will build eastward into the W Atlantic and freshen winds behind the lingering front through Thu evening. Looking ahead, another strong cold front will enter the western waters on Sat. Associated low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services