Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Nov 7 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Significant Swell Event: A large and long-period NW swell event is propagating across the north-central Atlantic waters, with seas greater than 12 ft covering the waters N of a line from 26N55W to 30N40W. Seas are currently peaking near 15 ft along 31N. Seas greater than 12 ft associated with this swell will propagate across the waters N of 26N between 30W and 55W through Fri before subsiding below 12 ft. Mariners should use extreme caution over these waters, depending on vessel type and cargo. Additional pulses of NW swell are expected to reach the waters E of 55W by Fri night, briefly building seas to 12-13 ft N of 30N between 40W and 50W through Sat.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues westward to near 06N30W. The ITCZ continues from 06N30W to 04N39W to near 06.5N54W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 12W and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 08N between 23W and 36W.
A surface trough extends from a 1015 mb low near 25N92W to the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, are over the central Gulf N of the low. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are expected over the north-central Gulf, north and east of the trough axis, through late tonight as the trough approaches the Texas coast. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will then develop over the western basin on Fri and continue through Sat as a complex low pressure system moves over the south-central U.S. A strong cold front will move into the northwest Gulf on Sun and progress southeastward through the basin into early next week. Widespread strong N to NE winds and rough seas can be expected behind the front, and gale force winds and very rough seas will be possible offshore of Veracruz by early Mon.
Moderate winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range.
For the forecast, moderate trade winds and moderate seas will prevail over the Caribbean through Fri afternoon, with winds pulsing to fresh speeds in the south-central basin and offshore of southern Hispaniola. Winds will freshen over the central and eastern Caribbean Fri night into early next week as a surface trough moves westward through the basin, and high pressure builds to the north. Locally strong winds and rough seas will be possible in the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, rough seas in N swell are expected over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles by late tonight. A new E to SE swell will support rough seas through the Atlantic Passages this weekend into early next week. A strong cold front is slated to enter the northwestern Caribbean early next week, leading to widespread fresh to strong NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on a NW swell event that is impacting the central Atlantic waters with very rough seas.
A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N35W and extends to 30N37W where it transitions to a stationary front that extends across the central Bahamas to near the coast of central Cuba. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1021 mb high near 26N40W. Light to gentle winds cover much of the discussion waters N of 20N and W of 30W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Aside from the area of 12 ft or greater seas discussed in the SPECIAL FEATURES section above, Seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of a line from 21N63W to 30N35W, and well as the waters N of 20N and E of 23W. Elsewhere, seas of 4-7 ft generally prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in N swell east of 65W will expand southeastward to the waters north of 20N by tonight. A new NW swell associated with a storm system passing north of the area will reinforce rough seas east of 65W Fri morning through Sat morning. Moderate or weaker winds are expected over the waters through much of Fri, with occasionally fresh E winds developing south of 25N Fri night. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds may develop offshore of Florida late this weekend ahead of a cold front moving through the southeastern U.S. The cold front will push off the coast early next week and progress southeastward into the central Atlantic, leading to fresh to strong winds and building seas behind the front.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services