Tropical Weather Reports

in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA

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Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Aug 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

TROPICAL WAVES

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 22W, south of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 15N and between 20W and 30W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. A tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portion of this week before environmental conditions become less favorable by this weekend. The current outlook gives the disturbance has a medium chance of development during the next 5 days.

An tropical wave has its axis near 38W, south of 20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N and between 35W and 41W.

An tropical wave has its axis near 51W, south of 19N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 50W and 55W.

A tropical wave has its axis near 75W, south of 21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 19N between 70W and 80W.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to 15N22W to 15N31W to 09N54W. The ITCZ extends from 09N54W to 09N61W. Aside from convection discussed on the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 30W and 35W, and from 09N to 13N between 41W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO

Active convection is ongoing over much of the Gulf of Mexico, with two surface troughs in the Gulf noted. The first trough extends from the Florida panhandle to 25N87W, while the second trough extends from 26N93W to the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail across the Gulf basin. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range.

For the forecast, a nearly stationary upper-level low over the SW Gulf will maintain active weather across the W Gulf tonight. Otherwise the Atlantic surface ridge will extend W along about 31N through late Wed before weakening W of 90W. Fresh NE to E winds will briefly pulse to strong in the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue night and Wed night. A mid to upper-level trough from the Florida Big Bend southward along the W coast of Florida will shift slowly W through Tue night and to the north- central and NW Gulf Wed through Fri, enhancing showers and thunderstorms across those sections of the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Fresh to strong trades are noted over the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure centered just NE of Bermuda will remain nearly stationary through early Wed before shifting WSW and weakening. Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will continue through Wed then gradually diminish to fresh through Thu night. A tropical wave across the central Caribbean accompanied by squalls and active weather will continue moving westward across the remainder of the basin through Wed. Active weather will accompany another tropical wave entering the tropical N Atlc waters late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A surface trough extends from 32N75W to 27N78W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough. Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 2-3 ft are noted in the vicinity of the trough. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 32N39W to 23N49W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of this trough. High pressure prevails elsewhere across the discussion waters. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward passage, with seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft are elsewhere south of 24N and west of 65W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere across the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 65W, the Atlantic ridge will remain centered just NE of Bermuda and dominate the forecast region through early Wed before shifting WSW and weakening. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail S of 25N through early Wed before diminishing. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. The surface trough extending from 32N75W to 27N78W and will drift W and inland through Tue.

Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services