Tropical Weather Reports

in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA

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Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A tight pressure gradient between a strong 1044 mb high pressure centered to the SE of Nova Scotia, and a quasi-stationary surface trough over the central subtropical Atlantic waters is supporting strong to near gale-force NE winds and very rough seas of 12 to 16 ft N of 25N between 47W and 60W. These hazardous marine conditions will persist across the forecast waters east of 60W through Mon. Afterward, winds and seas will gradually decrease over much of the area through the week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the Liberia/Sierra Leone border near 07N11W then extends southwestward to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 03N40W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 04N to 06N E of 13W to the coast of Liberia. Scattered moderate convection is from the Equator to 04N between 07W and 12W, and from 00N to 04N between 28W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO

Strong high pressure centered SE of Nova Scotia extends a ridge SW into the Gulf, supporting light to gentle E to SE winds and slight seas basin-wide. Moist air moving over cooler waters along the northern Gulf is resulting in patchy fog from Corpus Christi to Tallahassee, Florida adjacent waters, with the foggy conditions expected through late this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen over the SE Gulf.

For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the central and eastern Gulf tonight into Tue evening, between high pressure over the Carolinas and a surface trough that will move across the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to E winds will resume across the basin Tue night through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Strong high pressure of 1044 mb to the SE of Nova Scotia extends a ridge SW into the northern Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the central Caribbean with strong to near gale-force winds along the coast of Colombia. Seas over this region are 5 to 7 ft, except 8 to 10 ft over Colombia adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are ongoing over the E part of the basin while SE winds of the same magnitude are over the NW Caribbean, strongest in the Gulf of Honduras. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving westward across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will support pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south- central Caribbean, and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week. Fresh to strong NE to E winds in the north-central Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about a Significant Swell Event.

Other than the area mentioned in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh E to SE winds are ongoing E of the Bahamas to 65W along with rough seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. West of 75W, winds are gentle to moderate from the SE with slight to moderate seas. A surface trough is analyzed along 48W N of 21N. A weak low pressure center of 1016 mb is along the trough axis near 26N48W. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with these two features. East of the surface trough, a tight pressure gradient is present between a strong high pressure of 1032 mb centered just S of the Azores and a trough over NW Africa. This is resulting in fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas extending as far as 13N, including the Cape Verde Islands. Over the tropical Atlantic W of 40W, winds are gentle to moderate with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Higher seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted just NE of the Leeward Islands.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong to near-gale force NE winds and rough to very rough seas associated with a surface trough over the central subtropical Atlantic waters will persist across the offshore waters east of 60W through Mon. Afterward, winds and seas will gradually decrease over much of the area through the week. Winds and seas will increase off NE Florida by mid week ahead of the next cold front.

Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services