Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Mar 31 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warning and Large Swell: A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N46W to near 30N48W, then continues as a stationary front to 23N62W. A shear line curves westward from 23N62W to over the central Bahamas. Latest satellite scatterometer data reveal near- gale to gale-force NE winds north of this boundary from 26N to 30N between 50W and 58W. These winds are expected to decrease and become strong to near gale-force after midnight tonight as this frontal boundary gradually weakens. Large, long-period northerly swell is maintaining seas at 12 to 18 ft up to 450 nm northwest of this boundary. This northerly swell will steadily decline over the next couple of days, allowing seas to gradually subside, possibly dropping below 12 ft on Wed evening.
Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the following websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Gambia, then reaches southwestward to near 01N28W. An ITCZ continues from 01N28W across 00N34W to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 06N between 10W and 21W, and near the ITCZ and rest of the monsoon trough from 02S to 04N between 21W and 31W.
A surface ridge extends southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present across the Florida Straits, north of the Yucatan Peninsula and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf most of this week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds for the eastern Gulf through Sat night. Over the western Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast, except for locally strong E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night. Slight to moderate seas will prevail for the entire Gulf into the weekend.
A robust trade-wind regime continues across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds are seen at the south-central basin, in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic, and near the Windward Passage. Seas range from 8 to 10 ft at the south-central basin, 7 to 9 ft near the Windward Passage, and 4 to 6 ft in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic. Mainly moderate NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night, pulsing to near gale-force at night through midweek. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu night.
Refer to the Special Features section for more information about a gale warning, and large swell.
A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N46W to near 30N48W, then continues as a stationary front to 23N62W. A shear line curves westward from 23N62W to over the central Bahamas. Scattered showers are found near and up to 220 nm northwest of the fronts. Patchy showers are noted near and up to 100 nm north of the shear line. A pre-frontal trough is triggering similar conditions north of 25N between 44W and 48W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.
Outside the gale winds and very rough seas mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong NE winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are evident behind the frontal boundary and shear line, except moderate to fresh E to SE winds with 6 to 8 ft north of 27N between 75W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Farther southeast, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 7 to 11 ft in large N swell exist from 18N to the stationary front between 57W and the southeast Bahamas. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services