Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Sep 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 21W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N and between 18W and 26W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 21N and between 54W and 61W.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and continues to 09N44W. The ITCZ extends from 09N44W to 11N55W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the boundaries between 28W and 46W. GULF OF AMERICA
A stationary front extends from Hernando Beach, Florida to Fort Walton Beach, Florida. A pressure gradient prevails elsewhere over the gulf waters. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken over the next couple of days as it slowly drifts southward and dissipates by Thu. A strong ridge over the Eastern United States will support fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and rough seas starting in the NE Gulf late tonight and spreading over the rest of the northern Gulf waters through Thu night. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through Thu night, bringing nightly pulses of fresh to locally strong NE winds. Conditions will improve across the basin Fri, allowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas during the weekend.
Fresh to near gale E winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail over the south central Caribbean. Gentle winds and slight seas are over the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure will continue to support fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere from 11N to 18N. These conditions will persist through the workweek. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected, except moderate to fresh mainly in the evenings near the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba through Wed night. Winds will diminish across the basin by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as the pressures gradient relaxes, with seas also slightly subsiding.
A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail N of the front. A surface trough extends from 30N52W to 26N51W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, prevail N of 22N and W of 55W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas are found elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will shift southward over the next couple of days and dissipate by Thu. A tight pressure gradient between the building ridge over the eastern United States and the front will result in fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas to build to rough N of the Bahamas and W of 70W through early Thu. Conditions will improve later Thu into Fri. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough over the SE Bahamas and Hispaniola will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the area over the next few days as the system shifts northwestward.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover.