Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Oct 15 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W, from 21N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. A 1010 mb low (Invest AL94) pressure center is near 16N along the tropical wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the low center. This system remains embedded in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward and environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west- northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week. This system has a medium chance for tropical formation within the next 7 days.
A Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is S of 15N between 73W-78W.
The northern extension of a tropical wave is along 94W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis affecting the southern portions of the Bay of Campeche.
The monsoon trough passes enters the eastern Atlantic near 11N15W to 06N27W to Invest AL94. Scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough between 21W-44W.
A cold front/stationary front is in the coastal plains of the U.S.A. that border the northern sections of the Gulf of Mexico. No significant deep convective precipitation accompanies these boundaries. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 27N87W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 24N northward. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough passes from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, through the Yucatan Peninsula, to the Caribbean Sea. Slight seas, and mostly moderate or slower winds, are in the Gulf of Mexico. An exception is for fresh NE winds from 21N to 24N between 91W and 96W.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate NNE winds will dominate much of the basin through today ahead of a cold front forecast to move into the northern Gulf tonight. The front, followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas, will reach the Florida Straits and move E of the area Wed night into Thu. Fresh to strong winds will start to diminish late Sun.
A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough passes through the Yucatan Peninsula, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, close to eastern Honduras and to the northeast of Nicaragua. Scattered moderate to strong convection is in the remainder of the areas that are from 13N northward from Jamaica westward, and away from the tropical wave precipitation. It is possible that a broad area of low pressure may develop in the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter parts of this week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week. Fresh to moderate easterly winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Fresh to moderate NE winds are within 210 nm on either side of the 73W/74W tropical wave. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas are from 81W eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the eastern and central Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on Wed and then prevail through Sat night. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed evening followed by moderate to fresh NNE winds. The front will reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night and from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras Fri evening. Rough seas are expected during this period over the Yucatan Channel. Fresh NE winds associated with the front will also funnel through the Windward Passage Fri evening through Sat night aided by an approaching area of low pressure, Invest AL94, approaching the Turks and Caicos from the east.
Please, refer to the section above, for details about the tropical wave/area of low pressure related to Invest AL94.
A cold front is approaching the W Atlantic from the N, currently extending along 31N and W of 75W. No significant convection is noted at this time. A pre-frontal trough is from 31N71W to 22N76W with scattered showers within 90 nm E of the trough. Southerly fresh to strong winds are from 25N northward between 64W and the surface trough. Slight seas are from 70W westward. To the E, an occluded low is analyzed near 29N58W, 1016 mb. A cold front extends from the triple point E of the low to near 31N29W, while a stationary front is from the triple point to 24N65W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the low and stationary front mainly S of 29N between 54W-60W.
A stationary front is analyzed N of the area and E of 30W. Fresh to strong SW winds are from 28N northward between 14W and 26W, to the south of the front. Moderate to near-rough seas are from 08N southward from 20W eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh N winds are from 18N to 21N from 20W eastward. Fresh SE winds are from 04N southward between 35W and 40W. Fresh NE winds are from 03N southward between 47W and 50W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW to W winds associated with a pre-frontal trough and an approaching cold front from the west will continue to affect the NE Florida and the northern Bahamas offshore waters through today. Looking ahead, the cold front will stall tonight while a second and stronger cold front come off the Georgia coast. The fronts will merge on Wed and will bring fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas to the Florida and the Bahamas offshore waters through the weekend. Invest AL94 is forecast to move to the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico on Fri and merge with the front NE of the Dominican Republic on Sat.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services