Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Oct 10 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 17.3N 60.6W at 09/2100 UTC or 150 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Seas are peaking near 25 ft just northeast of the center. Heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 150 nm in a southeastern semicircle, and up to 60 nm in northwestern semicircle from the center. A turn toward the northwest is expected by the evening, followed by a slightly slower northward motion on Fri and Sat. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near the northern Leeward Islands this evening and tonight. Little change in strength is expected through tomorrow, but slow strengthening is possible over the weekend and Jerry could become a hurricane Sat. Heavy rainfall associated with Jerry may bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep terrain to portions of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles over the next couple of days, are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.shtml for more details. For the latest Jerry NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, please visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Significant Rainfall Across Eastern Mexico: Convergent low-level winds and abundant tropical moisture will continue to trigger periodic heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms today, across eastern Mexico along the Bay of Campeche from near the border of Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosi States southward to central Veracruz States. Locally heavy downpours can still lead to flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying areas and hilly terrains. Please stay up to date with the latest forecast and possible flood statements from your local weather agency.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 20N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Very dry air at low to mid levels are prohibiting any significant convection.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from Haiti southward to northeastern Colombia. It is moving west around 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are seen over Hispaniola and off the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from the Isle of Youth southward to Costa Rica. It is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the waters north of Costa Rica and Panama, and off western Cuba.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along coast of Senegal near 13N16W, then curves west- southwestward to 10N22W. An ITCZ then continues from 10N22W to 07N50W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 08N to 11N between 25W and 45W.
Please read the Special Features section on potential heavy rain across eastern Mexico.
A weak cold front reaches from near Cedar Key, Florida to near Corpus Christi, Texas. High pressure north of the front is supporting gentle to moderate NE winds are noted across the Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the northeast Gulf and Bay of Campeche, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off southwest Florida along a trough over the southeast Gulf, and north of the front over the northeast Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active over the west-central Gulf.
For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area combined with the frontal trough, which is forecast to persist over the far SE Gulf Fri through Sat, will promote moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across much of the basin through Sat, with fresh to strong NE winds over the NE Gulf waters. A ridge will dominate to Gulf region early next week producing mainly a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow.
Please read the Special Features section about Tropical Storm Jerry.
Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Caribbean Sea. Light to gentle NE to E trade winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail across the basin, except for slight seas over the northeast Caribbean.
For the forecast, Jerry will move to the northeast of the Leeward Islands through late Fri. Fresh to strong southerly winds will impact the Leeward Islands and the far northeast Caribbean on Fri. Large E swell will continue to propagate across the Caribbean passages of the Leeward Islands through Fri, and then NE swell are expected to reach the Anegada Passage early Fri through Sat. High pressure will begin to build from the central Atlantic to the Bahamas late Sun and Mon to bring a return to easterly trade winds across the eastern Caribbean.
Please refer to the Special Features section on Tropical Storm Jerry.
A stationary front curves west-southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N33W to south of Bermuda at 28N65W. A surface trough is seen farther west near 68W, northeast of the Bahamas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident within 90 nm either side of the front. Another surface trough is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the east Florida coast. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas are observed north fo the front. SE swell generated from Jerry is interacting with longer period NE swell to support 8 to 10 ft seas between the front and Jerry, and between 55W and 70W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W. Moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas persist east of 35W, except for fresh to strong NE winds off the coast of northwest Africa north of 15N.
For the forecast west of 55W, Jerry will move to 18.6N 62.0W Fri morning, 21.0N 63.1W Fri afternoon, 23.7N 63.4W Sat morning, then strengthen to a hurricane near 26.5N 63.2W Sat afternoon. Jerry will continue to 28.4N 62.9W Sun morning, and 30.7N 61.3W Sun afternoon. Jerry will change little in intensity as it moves to near 32.3N 57.9W Mon afternoon. An extratropical low pressure system is expected to develop offshore of north-central Florida by Sat and move northeastward through the weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are expected to occur north of a frontal boundary near 30N Fri. A frontal trough will develop W of the low on Sat across the extreme NW waters and north Florida, producing fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas across the Florida coastal waters north of the NW Bahamas from Sat through Sun morning.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services