Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
to receive our free report directly to your inbox
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Feb 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Gale to storm-force winds associated with a deep low pressure at the north-central Atlantic continues to generate large, long- period NW to N swell across the central Atlantic. As a result, expect seas of 12 to 16 ft from 25N to 31N and east of 60W. This area of very rough seas should gradually shift eastward through Thu night, then move east of 35W on Fri.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near Conakry, then extends southwestward to 05N19W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 05N19W through 02N30W to northeast of Sao, Brazil at 02N42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 05N and east of 18W, and up to 80 nm along either side of the ITCZ between 27W and 36W.
A surface ridge extends west-southwest from off central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. It is dominating the entire Gulf with light to gentle with locally moderate ESE to S winds. Except the eastern Bay of Campeche at 3 to 5 ft with fresh to locally strong ENE winds.
For the forecast, the next cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf by early Wed morning, then sweep southward across the Gulf region through late Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front. Winds and seas will begin to diminish across the Gulf area from west to east Thu night into Fri as high pressure settles over the northwestern Gulf.
A stationary front extends westward from the northern Leeward Islands to south of Jamaica near 14W76W, then transforms into a surface trough. Scattered showers related to these features are seen across the northern basin, north of 10N. Fresh to near-gale NE to E winds with 7 to 11 ft seas are present at the central and part of the southwestern basin, including the Windward and Mona Passages. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to ENE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft dominate elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, the front is forecast to dissipate late tonight into Wed. Fresh to strong winds will persist in the central Caribbean through Wed, with winds gradually veering to the E as high pressure settles north of the area. An area of moisture, associated with the remnants of the frontal boundary, will move westward across the central Caribbean through tonight, reaching the coast of Nicaragua on Wed, and remaining over the northwest Caribbean through Thu. Then, another cold front is expected to reach the northwestern Caribbean late on Thu, and will merge with this area of moisture. The new front will bring fresh to strong N winds and building seas, and it will move quickly, reaching from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night into Fri while gradually weakening. By Sat morning, fresh to strong N winds with rough seas will persist in the SW Caribbean, including offshore Nicaragua, Costa Rica and western Panama.
Please see the Special Features section for details on the significant swell event.
A cold front extends southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 31N43W to just east of the northern Leeward Islands, where it transform into a stationary front to beyond the Leeward Islands. Scattered showers are found near and up to 80 nm northwest of the boundary. Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection.
Fresh to strong SW winds with 10 to 14 ft seas are noted up to 200 nm southeast of the front, east of 43W. Fresh NE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are noted near the front, north of 26N and east of 55W. Moderate to fresh NE winds with seas at 8 to 10 ft are seen up to 100 nm northwest of the front, west of 55W. Two high pressure systems are dominating the central Atlantic with light to gentle winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate northerly swell from 20N to 26N, and off the northeastern Florida waters. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the north part of the front will continue to move eastward while the southern part of it will remain nearly stationary in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands through early Wed, then the front will begin to lift N late on Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off NE Florida on Thu. Another round of fresh to strong winds and building seas is expected with the next cold front, which is forecast to extend from near Bermuda to Hispaniola by Fri morning, and from 25N55W to Puerto Rico on Sat. Gale conditions are possible on either side of the front mainly across the waters N of 29N Thu night and Fri. Strong low pressure building N of the forecast area could also bring gale force winds across the N waters E of 70W Sat night and Sun.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services