Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Feb 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell ranging from mainly 12 to 16 ft with 12 to 18 second periods covers much of the area north of 20N between 22W and 57W. A Sofar buoy indicated 16 ft near 26N41W. The swell is the result of both storm and gale force winds associated with two low pressure systems across the north-central Atlantic. The swell will continue to decay slowly from west to east, allowing for these seas to drop below 12 ft (4 m) for most areas by early Wed evening. Mariners are urged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts.
South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient between building high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in Colombia and Panama is supporting fresh to near gale-force winds across most of the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and the waters south of Hispaniola into Wed night. Winds will pulse to minimal gale-force tonight and again on Wed night offshore Colombia. Seas with these winds are expected to be in the 8 to 12 ft (2.5 to 3.5 M) range.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events.
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and continues to 01N15W to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to 00N38W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 02S to 08N between 06W and 17W, and from 01S to 06N between 39W and 52W.
A surface ridge extends across the Gulf, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure that is centered northeast of the Bahamas near 28N72W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressure along Mexico is generally allowing for gentle to moderate SE flow across the basin, with the exception of locally fresh SE winds offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz. Seas basin-wide are 2 to 4 ft.
For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate the Gulf waters through the end of the week, bringing mainly gentle to moderate southerly flow and slight to moderate seas. Locally fresh winds are expected tonight just NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Southerly winds are likely to increase this weekend ahead of an approaching cold front that is forecast to move across the western Gulf Sun. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow this front.
See Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia.
Strong high pressure anchored by a 1025 mb high NE of the Bahamas is building a ridge southward into the northern Caribbean, which is supporting fresh to near gale-force NE winds over the central Caribbean, Windward Passage, lee side of Cuba and NE Caribbean. Seas across the central Caribbean are 8 to 11 ft, mainly due the winds, but with also a component of northerly swell slipping through the Mona Passage from the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support fresh to strong winds across most of the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and the waters between Cuba and Jamaica, into Wed night. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight and possibly again Wed night offshore Colombia. Meanwhile, large NW to N swell will continue to impact the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters through Wed creating hazardous marine conditions. Late this week into the weekend, the pressure gradient will relax, leading to moderate to fresh trade winds dominating the basin.
Please see the Special Features section for details on an ongoing central Atlantic significant swell event.
Surface high pressure and associated ridging continue to dominate the subtropical western and eastern Atlantic waters. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to rough seas are present over the waters S of 22N and W of 55W, except for locally strong winds in the approaches to the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas are also present N of 29N, in the periphery of the high center. Between the two ridges, a cold front extends from 31N36W SW to 21N63W with a pre-frontal trough extending further SW to just N of the Gulf of Venezuela in the Caribbean. Moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the front to 30W while NE winds of the same speed are ongoing between the coast of W Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Otherwise, long-period and large NW swell continue to affect the tropical Atlantic waters with rough seas to 12 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure NE of the Bahamas will shift NE and exit the region by Wed evening. Moderate to fresh SW winds over NE Florida offshore waters will reach fresh to strong speeds by Wed morning ahead of the next cold front forecast to exit the Carolinas. The tail of the cold front will reach the northern offshore waters Wed night, supporting the continuation of fresh to strong SW to W winds and rough seas as the front extends from 31N61W to the northern Bahamas Thu evening before moving E of 55W by Fri night. Looking ahead, more strong SW winds are possible offshore the SE U.S. starting Sun, ahead of a trailing cold front.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services