Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Dec 30 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is analyzed from near Perry, Florida to Tampico, Mexico. Earlier scatterometer data confirmed gale force N to NW winds following the front over the western Gulf, and gale force winds are likely reaching south of the Rio Grande off northwest Mexico. These conditions will expand to areas offshore of Tampico and Veracruz later this evening and tonight. Prolonged gale force winds and significant very rough seas will persist over the western Bay of Campeche through late Tue night. Seas will peak around 20 ft off Veracruz Tue. Conditions will improve from north to south by midweek.
Central Atlantic Gale and Significant Swell: A cold front, stemming from a storm-force low north of the area, enters the discussion waters near 31N37W and then curves southwestward and westward to near 20N67W, where it becomes a stationary front that extends northwestward toward the northern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection producing gale-force winds is seen within 90 nm ahead of the front north of 29N. Strong to near- gale force winds with frequent gusts to gale force are on either side of the front north of 23N between 35W and 55W. Large N swell generated from the storm system is producing very rough seas greater than 12 ft over the forecast waters north of 22N between 35W and 60W. These very rough seas will shift eastward while gradually subsiding from south to north through the week.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N13W and continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 05N35W to 02N50W. No significant convection is observed along the monsoon trough or ITCZ.
Please read the Special Features section above regarding gale warnings.
A strong cold front is analyzed from near Perry, Florida to Tampico, Mexico. In addition to the gale- force winds following the front over the western Gulf, strong to near-gale force winds and building seas cover the Gulf elsewhere north of the front. Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted south of the front. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted along a surface trough analyzed over the Bay of Campeche, but no significant convection is noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, elsewhere behind the front, widespread strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas are expected, with winds and seas slowly diminishing from north to south Tue into early Wed. High pressure will build over the northern Gulf around midweek, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas over the basin.
The pressure gradient between high pressure n of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas of 7-10 ft over the south central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail over the eastern and north central Caribbean. Moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh trade winds will occur over the central Caribbean into early Wed as high pressure prevails north of the basin. Winds will pulse to strong speeds in the south-central Caribbean, and may reach near-gale force offshore of Colombia late tonight. Rough seas are expected near and to the west of the strongest winds. Over the Atlantic waters, rough seas in N swell are expected through late Thu before seas subside. Looking ahead, a cold front is slated to enter the northwestern Caribbean on Tue, and fresh to locally strong N winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front, including through the Yucatan Channel. The front will weaken and eventually dissipate over the northwestern basin by late week.
See the Special Features section above for details on a gale warning and a significant swell event in the central Atlantic.
In addition to the conditions described in the Special Features section, rough seas 8 to 10 ft cover the waters north of 20N between 20W and 60W, up to the area of very rough seas outlined above. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are over the deep tropics south of 13N between 25W and 60W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, very rough seas in N swell will prevail north of 22N and east of 62W through Tue morning as a strong cold front in the central Atlantic moves eastward. Widespread rough seas associated with this front will continue east of 65W today, with seas slowly subsiding from west to east through midweek. Elsewhere, fresh to strong W to SW winds offshore of northern and central Florida will prevail this afternoon as a strong cold front moves through the southern United States. The front is slated to push off the coast by this evening, with fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas expected in the wake of the front. The front will progress eastward through midweek, with fresh to strong SW winds likely ahead of the front, and fresh to locally strong NW winds following the front. Rough seas associated with the front are expected north of 28N, with seas subsiding from west to east Tue through Wed. Looking ahead, the next cold front moving off the coast of the United States is forecast to enter the northwest tropical Atlantic late this week, with increasing winds and building seas likely near and behind the front.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services