Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Oct 29 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 13N and between 30W and 50W.
Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally strong easterly winds from 10N to 17N and between 36W and 46W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, south of 17N, and moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this trough axis.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 07N20W and to 06N26W. The ITCZ extends from 06N26W to 08N40W and from 08N42W to 08N51W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 10N and between 22W and 30W.
A strong ridge over New England extends southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to strong easterly winds over much of the Gulf of Mexico, excluding the Bay of Campeche. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that the strongest winds are occurring in the SE Gulf waters. Moderate or weaker winds are found in the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 4-7 ft are occurring over much of the basin, except 2-4 ft in the SE Gulf.
For the forecast, strengthening high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region through Fri night. Winds will increase to strong speeds across the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, Tue through Thu.
Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continues to support scattered showers and isolated showers over the NW and SW Caribbean. A strong ridge located north of the Greater Antilles forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the NW Caribbean, especially north of 17N. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present over much of the central and SW Caribbean, except south of 11N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward or northeastward toward the central Caribbean Sea. In the meantime, strengthening high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through tonight. Fresh winds and moderate seas will continue in this area through Wed. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are also expected in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola most of the week.
A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N48W and continues southwestward to a 1012 mb low pressure system near 25N53W and then to 19N63W and to eastern Cuba. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident north of 22N and between 38W and 52W. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds are present in the northern semicircle of the low pressure. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. In the remainder of the SW North Atlantic (west of 55W), a strong ridge centered over New England sustains fresh to strong easterly winds over much of the area west of 65W. Wave heights are in the 6-9 ft range in the area described.
The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of the 1033 mb high pressure system positioned near the Azores. This ridge supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas elsewhere east of 55W.
For the forecast west of 55W, a strengthening high pressure in the wake of the aforementioned front will push the front eastward as a cold front, reaching from 31N45W to near the Leeward Islands by Tue evening. The high pressure will bring an extended period of strong winds and rough seas through Thu. Peak seas of 12 or 13 ft are expected E of the Bahamas Wed through Thu.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services