Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jan 8 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra Leone, then runs southwestward to 06N18W. An ITCZ continues westward from 06N18W across 03N30W to 04N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ from 01N to 03N between 17W and 28W, and from 04N to 06N between 37W and 43W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 05N between 10W and 17W.
A diurnal surface trough is triggering scattered showers at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high at the east-central Gulf is in control much of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the west-central and northwestern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh ENE to E winds with 3 to 4 ft exist at the eastern Bay of Campeche, near the Yucatan Peninsula and in the Yucatan Channel. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, strong winds will pulse offshore of south Texas and northeastern Mexico tonight through Thu, and locally rough seas may accompany these winds. Moderate to fresh SE winds over the western half of the Gulf will expand eastward over much of the Gulf on Thu, with these winds continuing through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf late Fri night. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front as it moves over the basin into early next week. Gale force winds will be possible offshore of Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Sat into Mon morning.
A 1019 mb high northeast of the Bahamas sustains a trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trade winds are creating widely scattered showers from the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula eastward to near Jamaica. Fresh to strong NE trade winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are seen at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted at the north-central and part of the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds with seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, strong to occasionally near-gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of northern Colombia through this weekend as low pressure prevails over the region. Rough seas will occur within and surrounding these winds. Strong winds are also expected each afternoon and evening in the Gulf of Venezuela starting on Thu afternoon. Fresh NE to E winds will occur over the central Caribbean tonight, including through the Windward Passage, with fresh winds expanding over much of the basin through late week as the pressure gradient increases between the Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Otherwise, pulsing strong winds are expected through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola nightly starting on Thu night.
A cold front extends southwestward from a 1016 mb low across 31N44W to 26N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and up to 240 nm east of the front. A surface trough/dissipating stationary front reaches southwestward from 26N50W to a 1014 mb low near 21N59W. Farther south, a surface trough embedded within the trade-wind flow causes scattered showers from 06N to 11N between 24W and 33W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.
Moderate with locally fresh NE to SW to W winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident north of 28N between 60W and 75W, and in the Great Bahama Banks. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to SE to SW winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells are noted north of 20N between 30W and the Florida coast/Bahamas. At the central Atlantic north of 20N between 35W and 30W, moderate to fresh with locally strong SE to S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in large NE swells. For the tropical Atlantic from 04N to 20N between 35W and 45W, moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft are found. To the west, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist north of 04N and west of 45W. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds and moderate seas occurring west of 67W and north of 29N will slowly diminish tonight as a surface trough moves eastward. Gentle or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are then expected over the northwestern tropical Atlantic on Thu as a weak pressure gradient develops. High pressure building off the coast of the eastern United States on Fri will support moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and building seas over the region through this weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front is slated to move off the coast of the southeastern U.S. on Sun, leading to fresh to locally strong NW winds and seas building to 9 ft in the wake of the front.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services