Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Nov 17 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa with its western extension reaching offshore near 12N18W. The ITCZ extends from 12N18W to 06N30W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 11W and 45W.
A weak 1015 mb ridge dominates the Gulf region supporting gentle to moderate southerly winds over the western Gulf W of 94W, and mainly light to gentle variable winds over the remaining Gulf. Seas are slight to 3 ft basin-wide.
For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will generally maintain gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin through Mon. Afterward, stronger high pressure that moves offshore the Mid-Atlantic region will build south-southwestward across the northern Gulf through the rest of the period, with its associated gradient resulting in fresh to locally strong southeast to south winds across most of basin, with the strong wind speeds expected mainly in the NW Gulf as a cold front moves across central Texas. Seas are likely to become rough with these winds. The cold front may push to just offshore the Texas coast late Fri and become stationary.
A surface trough is analyzed over the NW Caribbean, extending from just east of the Youth Island, Cuba to the E Gulf of Honduras, which is bringing scattered showers to the adjacent waters of lee side of Cuba. Another surface trough is in the E Caribbean just W of the Lesser Antilles, which is generating scattered showers to the offshore zones E of 64W. Recent scatterometer data show mainly light to gentle winds across the basin, except locally moderate to fresh in the area of convection associated with the surface trough just E of Youth Island. Locally moderate trades are also likely in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are slight to 3 ft across the region.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient over the area will generally maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin into early Tue. The trade winds will then increase to mostly fresh speeds during the rest of the period as western Atlantic high pressure expands southeastward toward the Greater Antilles while at the same time the Colombian low becomes evident. Otherwise, pulses of moderate long period northeast swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles as well as the Caribbean passages through early Wed.
A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N36W and extends SW to near 24N48W where it transitions to a stationary front that continues SW to just NE of The Virgin Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the front, more concentrated toward the northern end of the frontal boundary N of 24N. Decaying NW swell with seas to 9 ft remain on either side of the front N of 28N. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are N of 28N between the coast of Florida and 60W ahead the next cold front. Seas over this area of stronger winds are in the 8 to 12 ft range in NW swell. The Azores High dominates the remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters, except for the tail end of a cold front that extends from NW Africa to 24N22W. A tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and the front continues to support moderate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft between the NW coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands, including the Canary Islands and adjacent waters. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary portion of the front will weaken to a trough Mon then dissipate Mon night. A cold front will enter NW waters Mon, then weaken and stall Tue from around 30N60W to the Turks and Caicos. Strong SW winds and rough seas can be expected ahead of the front N of 29N through Mon, with some rough seas lingering behind the front N of 28N over NE waters until the front dissipate Tue night into Wed.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services