Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 0615 UTC Tue Dec 10 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf of Mexico beginning early on Tue and move quickly across the Gulf through Wed afternoon into Wed evening. Gale force winds are expected to develop over the western Gulf mainly west of 92W behind the front during that time. Very rough to high seas are expected in the area of strongest winds. Conditions will improve across the Gulf by Thu as the cold front exits the basin and pushes farther east. Rough seas will subside by the weekend.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details.
East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir marine zone, expect gale conditions to persist through at least 10/0600 UTC. Please visit website: https://www.wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more information.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W then extends southwestward to 08N21W. An ITCZ continues from 08N21W through 05N31W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 200 nm along either side of these features east of 37W.
Refer to the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning.
Convergent southerly winds along the Gulf States are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northwestern and north-central Gulf, north of 27.5N. A surface ridge reaches southwestward from central Florida to north of Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh SE to SW winds along with 4 to 6 ft seas are present at the west-central, northwestern and north-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, a strong cold front will push offshore Texas early on Tue, then quickly move southeastward across the basin, exiting the region Wed afternoon into Wed evening. Behind the front, strong to gale-force winds and rapidly building seas can be expected. These hazardous conditions will prevail through Thu, then high pressure settling into the northern Gulf will bring more tranquil weather for the end of the week, and into the weekend.
A double-barrel high pressure east of Bermuda continues to channel northeasterly trade winds across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong ENE trades with seas at 8 to 10 ft dominate the south- central basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh with locally strong ENE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident at the north- central and southwestern basin, including the Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in moderate NE swell are found near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail through tonight. Afterward, the double-barrel high pressure will shift eastward to the central Atlantic, allowing the trades to diminish to between moderate and fresh, except off the coast of Colombia, where fresh to strong winds will persist. A cold front will move across the Yucatan Channel Wed and across the northwestern basin Wed night and Thu, then become stationary Thu night from east-central Cuba to near the northeastern Nicaragua. The front will weaken and dissipate through Fri. Fresh to strong NE winds behind this front will diminish some on Fri, except winds will pulse between fresh and strong at the lee of Cuba and near the Windward Passage and Jamaica Fri through Sat night.
Refer to the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning issued by Meteo France.
A weakening stationary front curves southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N46W to 21N62W, then continues as a shear line to near 23N72W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near and up to 150 nm on both sides of the front, particularly, between 51W and 62W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.
A 1027 mb high pressure east of Bermuda is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft north of 27N between 57W and the Georgia/northeastern Florida coast. Farther south and east, moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are found up to 250 nm northwest of the stationary front/shear line.
At the central Atlantic, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present north of 20N between 35W and the stationary front/shear line. For the Tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas exist. Fresh to locally strong winds along with seas to 15 ft are found north of the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.
For the forecast W of 55W, a weakening stationary front extends from 31N46W to 21N62W, where it transitions to a shearline to just north of the southern Bahamas. These features will dissipate by Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off northeast Florida Tue night ahead of the next cold front that will reach from near 31N79W to South Florida by Wed afternoon, become stationary from near 31N69W to east-central Cuba by Thu night, then gradually weaken into late Fri night as strong high pressure builds in behind it. A broad trough is expected to develop ahead of the front near 61W. A tight pressure gradient west of the front and trough will bring strong to near gale-force north to northeast winds and rough seas over the waters in the vicinity of the trough and front.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services