Tropical Weather Reports

in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA

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Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue May 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

TROPICAL WAVES

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic along 18W, south of 14N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed on either side of the wave axis from 06N to 09N between 15W and 20W.

A second tropical wave in the central Atlantic along 40W, south of 11N. The wave is moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted mainly ahead of the wave axis from 04N to 07N between 40W and 44W. The satellite- derived wind data also captured fresh to strong winds primarily associated with the strongest convection.

A tropical wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 knots across the central Caribbean Sea. Its axis is along 71W, south of 21N, extending across the Dominican Republic to near the Venezuela/ Colombia border. Latest scatterometer data captured the wind shift related to the wave axis as well as moderate to fresh winds associated with it. This system continues to generate scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms over parts of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, including also the Caribbean waters N of 15N between 65W and 71W. Moisture associated with this wave will spread into Jamaica and eastern Cuba Tue and Wed. The storm activity may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the next few days from eastern Cuba to the Virgin Islands, especially in mountainous areas, leading to flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather office for more specific information.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 05N35W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from from 07N to 09N between 15W and 20W, from 02N to 04N between 20W and 25W, and from 03N to 07N between 40W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO

A 1021 mb high pressure system located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda extends a ridge across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico is resulting in mainly gentle to moderate SE winds across most of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft W of 88W and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico persist across most of the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche where dense concentration of smoke is noted on the smoke graphic recently issued by SAB. Visibilities are 3 nm or less across many observing sites along the SW and western Gulf coast.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will continue to dominate across the Gulf through Sat. As a result, winds will be SE gentle to moderate west of 87W through Thu, but become moderate to fresh Thu evening through Sat night. A weak cold front will move across the far NE Gulf late tonight, followed by gentle W to NW winds. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the N and W portions of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night for the next several days. Haze west of 87W due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days. Visibilities will be 3 NM or less in the SW Gulf of Mexico, including the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave currently moving across the central Caribbean Sea.

The persistent upper-level trough has shifted a little to the west while weakening. Its axis now extends from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua. This feature continues to transport abundant tropical moisture northward, enhancing convection across the central and SW Caribbean. Low topped trade wind showers are noted elsewhere, with a dense concentration of smoke over the Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires over northern Central America.

High pressure north of the Greater Antilles is promoting moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds over much of the eastern and central Caribbean and also west of 84W. Seas in these waters are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Hazy conditions continue to affect the Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires over Central America. Visibilities are 3 nm or less along the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high pressure located just south of Bermuda and lower pressure along northern South America will force fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through Wed before diminishing late in the week. A tropical wave currently over the central Caribbean is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms as it moves slowly westward during the next couple of days. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is causing reduced visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic.

A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure system located E of the Azores near 37N20W. A surface trough extends from a 1014 mb low pressure located well N of the area near 35N48W to 22N62W. Isolated showers are ahead of the trough mainly near 30N49W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow dominates most of the waters N of 20N and W of 40W where seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range, except E of Florida and NE of the Bahamas where seas are 1 to 3 ft. The pressure gradient tightens just N of the Cabo Verde Islands between the ridge and low pressures over W Africa. As a result, an area of fresh to strong NE winds extends from the Cabo Verde Islands to about 23N and W of 25W to the coast of W Africa. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the tropical Atlantic, with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a 1020 mb Bermuda High is contributing toward moderate or lighter winds across the basin today. A weak cold front should emerge from the SE United States coast tonight, but then become stationary north of the Bahamas and dissipate by tomorrow night. The front will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas, away from the thunderstorms, should remain quiescent for the next few days across the forecast waters. Looking ahead, a late-season cold front is anticipated to impact the waters north of the Greater Antilles Fri night into at least Sat night.

Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services