Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Dec 4 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 30W and 40W.
1011 mb low pressure is developing off the central coast of Texas. A warm front extends from the low to 26N85W then is stationary to Florida Bay. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active north of the front over the northwest Gulf west of 90W. Moderate to fresh SW to S winds are noted over the northwest Gulf near the low pressure, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf will spread eastward tonight into Thu. Then, another cold front will enter the NW waters on Thu, and extend from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico Fri morning, then stall and also lift north toward the northern Gulf on Sat. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front is likely to sweep across the Gulf region late Sun into Mon, bringing fresh to strong NW to N winds over much of the basin. This front is forecast to move SE of the area late on Mon or Mon night.
A few showers and thunderstorms are noted near a surface over the Leeward Islands. Generally fair conditions persist elsewhere. Fresh NE winds persist across the Windward Passage, south of Cuba, and off the central coast of Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft except for 1 to 3 ft seas in the northwest Caribbean.
For the forecast, building high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of the basin through early next week. Locally strong NE winds may pulse at night off NW Colombia tonight and Thu night. Meanwhile, locally rough seas, in NE swell, will persist across the NE Caribbean passages into early next week. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the NW Caribbean early next week.
A slow moving cold front extends from Bermuda to near Miami, Florida. A pre- frontal trough is noted from 31N64W to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front, north of 25N between 57W and 63W. A surface trough is south of 22N along 62W southward to the Leeward Islands. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by 1031 mb high pressure centered south of the Azores near 35N26W. The axis of a surface ridge extends from this high pressure toward 25N60W. Gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft in easterly swell west of 60W, except for fresh winds near the northern end of the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong E trade winds are noted over the deep tropics south of 15N between 35W and 60W, with 8 to 10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 8 to 10 ft are noted elsewhere south of the ridge axis. Gentle SE to S breezes and 5 to 7 ft in N to NE swell along the ridge axis.
For the forecast west of 55W, the front will extend from 31N67W to central Cuba by Thu morning, and from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by Fri morning while dissipating. High pressure will follow the front. Then, a ridge will dominate most of the forecast area through the end of the week. The next cold front is expected to clip the waters offshore of NE Florida late Fri into Sat, resulting in fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas N of 28N and east of 70W. Conditions will improve Sun, but a stronger cold front reaching the same area on Mon.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services