Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Feb 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front reaches southwestward from the north-central Atlantic near 31N45W to the Leeward Islands and continuing as a stationary front to the northern coast of Colombia. Large NW swell behind this front is producing 12 to 17 ft seas across the western and central Atlantic north of 24N between 39W and 65W. The cold front will move eastward across the central and eastern Atlantic, reaching NW Africa Thu evening. Large long-period NW swell in the wake of the front will continue to produce 12 to 15 ft seas, affecting the eastern subtropical Atlantic waters through Sat, but subsiding west of 35W Fri night.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast near 08.5N13W, then extends southwestward to 04.5N21W. The ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 04.5N21W to the coast of Brazil at 02.5S44.5W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to the Equator and east of 34W.
High pressure of 1028 mb located over north Florida dominates the Gulf region supporting fresh to strong southerly return flow over the western part of the basin, and moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds across the SE and SW parts of the Gulf. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are slight over the NE and N-central portions of the Gulf, and moderate elsewhere.
For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the western part of the basin will persist into this evening. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf by early Wed morning, then sweep southward across the Gulf region through late Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front. Winds and seas will begin to diminish across the Gulf area from W to E Thu night into Fri as high pressure settles over the NW Gulf.
A stationary front extends from the northern Leeward Islands to the coast of Colombia near 11N74W where it is helping to induce some shower activity. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are noted in the wake of the front to 80W, including through the Windward, Mona, and Anegada Passages. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted west of 80W, along with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate winds are found east of the front over the remainder of the eastern Caribbean, with moderate seas, except locally rough near and in any Atlantic Passages. A surface trough extends north from the Colombia Low, and is aiding in the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the central Caribbean.
For the forecast, the front is forecast to dissipate late tonight into Wed. Fresh to strong winds will persist in the central Caribbean through Wed, with winds gradually veering to the E as high pressure settles N of the area. An area of moisture, associated with the remnants of the frontal boundary, will move westward across the central Caribbean through tonight, reaching the coast of Nicaragua on Wed, and remaining over the NW Caribbean through Thu. Then, another cold front is expected to reach the NW Caribbean late on Thu, and will merge with this area of moisture. The new front will bring fresh to strong N winds and building seas. It will move quickly across the basin, reaching from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night into Fri while gradually weakening. By Sat morning, fresh to strong N winds with rough seas will persist in the SW Caribbean, including offshore Nicaragua, Costa Rica and western Panama.
Please see the Special Features section for details on the significant swell event.
A cold front extends from 31N43W to the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front north of 25N, with similar winds south of 22N through the Atlantic to Caribbean passages. Very rough seas, in long period NW swell, are found in the wake of the front as described above, with rough seas elsewhere west of the front to 78W, and also just ahead of the front. A frontal trough extends from the coast of Africa at 21N16.5W to 23N35W with 1020 mb high pressure in its wake near 27N28W. Winds north of this boundary have diminished since this time yesterday, however associated residual rough seas are found north of 17N and east of 35W, locally very rough north of 27N and east of 21W. Seas are moderate to locally rough across the remainder of the open waters. Moderate to locally fresh trades are found north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 21N and east of 40W, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds under ridging extending from the high across the remainder of the open waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, the north part of the front will continue to move eastward while the southern part of it will remain nearly stationary in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands through early Wed, then the front will begin to lift N late on Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off NE Florida on Thu. Another round of fresh to strong winds and building seas is expected with the next cold front, which is forecast to extend from near Bermuda to Hispaniola by Fri morning, and from 25N55W to Puerto Rico on Sat. Gale conditions are possible on either side of the front mainly across the waters N of 29N Thu night and Fri. Strong low pressure building N of the forecast area could also bring gale force winds across the N waters E of 70W Sat night and Sun.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services