Tropical Weather Reports

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Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Mar 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the border of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 01N27W. The ITCZ continues from 01N27W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Most of the convective activity is S of the Equator.


A cold front has entered the NW corner of the basin stretching from SE Louisiana to near Brownsville, TX. A band of showers and thunderstorms is associated with the front. Similar convective activity is ahead of the front currently affecting the NE Gulf, the Florida Panhandle and northern Florida. Fresh to strong northerly winds are behind the boundary, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front and runs from 26N93W to the central Bay of Campeche. The eastern part of the Gulf region is under the influence of a ridge. Mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail E of the front, with the exception of 1 to 3 ft E of 85W, including the offshore waters of Florida and the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE and extend from near Tampa Bay to the western Bay of Campeche Wed, then weaken and dissipate over the far SE waters Thu. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in the northwestern Gulf behind the front through early Wed. High pressure will build over the SE United States by the end of the week, and will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin, with fresh to locally strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds will weaken slightly for the start of the weekend.


The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia supports strong to near-gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean where latest scatterometer data indicate trade winds of 25 to 30 kt. Fresh to strong winds, in the 20 to 25 kt range, are noted over the remainder of the central Caribbean, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the eastern Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds are observed elsewhere, including the Windward Passage. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft across the remainder of the central Caribbean, and in the Gulf of Honduras, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba. Low-topped trade wind showers are noted across the basin moving westward in the trade wind flow.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean through the week. Winds N of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night Thu night into Sun night. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the Gulf of Honduras into Wed morning. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds across the approach to the Windward Passage Fri through Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas will build to around 8 ft E of the Lesser Antilles this weekend with fresh trades blowing around the southern periphery of the Atlantic high pressure.


High pressure dominates the Atlantic forecast waters with the main center of 1021 mb located near 26N60W. Light and variable winds are in the vicinity of the high center while moderate to fresh winds are observed around the southern periphery of this system, mainly between Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the offshore waters of east Florida and near the NW and central Bahamas. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted over the SE Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage. Higher seas, in the 7 to 10 ft range are seen E of 60W due to long period N swell. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are affecting the waters E of the Lesser Antilles based on scatterometer and altimeter data. Convection is on increase just E of NE Florida due to an approaching cold front.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front is forecast to move off the SE United States coast this evening, then slowly track southeastward through Fri when it will reach to along 22N/23N. Fresh to strong winds and higher seas are forecast N of 29N in the vicinity of the front Wed, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the vicinity of the front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient, generating fresh to strong NE to ENE winds across the Bahamas starting Thu night. NE swell will build seas to around 8 ft east of the Bahamas by the end of the week.

Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services