Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Mar 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the western Atlantic ridge along 32N and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades across the central part of the basin through Wed night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale- force during the night- time hours tonight. Seas of 8-12 ft are expected with these strongest winds. Winds offshore of northwest Colombia will again increase on Wed night, but are expected to remain just below gale-force. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for northerly gales with severe gusts through 11/1200 UTC at least. Very rough seas to around 4.5 m are likely with these winds. Please refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 10.5N14.5W, then continues SW to near 02N20W. The ITCZ extends from 02N20W to 01.5S32W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5S44.5W. Scattered moderate convection is about the trough and ITCZ, and noted from S of 06N between 11W and 51W.
A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic westward along 32N and across the northern Gulf to SE Texas. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and 3-6 ft seas across the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate E to SE breezes with 1-3 ft seas over the eastern Gulf. SKies are generally fair to partly cloudy with no significant precipitation detected.
For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending across the northern basin will prevail through Wed night. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to fresh and strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the northeastern Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. A cold front will sink into the northwestern Gulf beginning Wed night, moving over the SE portion of the basin through Fri night and dissipating. In the wake of the front, winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds and seas will build to 11 ft through Thu night, with conditions improving thereafter as ridging gradually rebuilds across the basin.
Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean.
Fresh to strong easterly trade winds persist across east and central portions of the Caribbean this evening. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are evident elsewhere. Seas are 7-9 ft off of Colombia, and 5-8 ft elsewhere, except 3-4 over the northwest Caribbean. A sharp upper trough extending from the Turks and Caicos Islands to Costa Rica is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from Jamaica southward to 14N.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the eastern basin through tonight, and the central basin through Wed night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale- force during the night-time hours tonight and to near-gale on Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will linger in the S-central Caribbean into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse near the Windward Passage and south of Haiti through Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Lee of Cuba through Wed night. Large easterly trade- wind swell from the tropical Atlantic will maintain rough seas near the Lesser Antilles through early Thu. Marine conditions will improve slightly but temporarily by the end of the week as the pressure gradient weakens due to a weak cold front approaching the NW Caribbean.
A surface ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure centered east of Bermuda to the coasts of northeast Florida and Georgia. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh E winds and 6-9 ft seas south of 25N and west of 55W, and gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas elsewhere. Farther east, a surface trough is along roughly 44W from 20N to 30N, associated with an upper low over that area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the upper low and surface trough are active from 22N to 28N between 36W and 42W. Divergent flow aloft is also supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from 14N to 21N between 18W and 30W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and 7-11 ft seas prevail east of the trough to Africa, north of 20N. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin east of 60W, except for fresh trade winds and seas to 9 ft over the tropical Atlantic west of 50W.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail south of 25N through Wed, increasing to strong winds north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast Bahamas. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a cold front that will move offshore Thu night. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas behind the front, weakening and slowing from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Fri. High pressure ridging will build across the basin for the end of the week into the weekend.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services