Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jan 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N72W to the northern Bahamas, with fresh to strong winds on either side N of 27N and W of 66W. A reinforcing cold front from 31N77W to central Florida will merge with the leading front. The merged front will reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale force tonight with seas of up to 15 ft east of the front and N of 29N. Gales should subside by tomorrow morning south of 31N.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front from south Florida to the Bay of Campeche will shift southeast of the area by this evening. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas prevail in the wake of the front. Gale warnings are in place within 60 NM of the Florida panhandle based upon frequent gusts to gale force. Seas in these coastal waters are to 8 ft. Conditions will improve from NW to SE across the Gulf through tonight.
Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore Zone Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAAOFFNT4.shtml .
There is no monsoon trough over the Atlantic today. The ITCZ begins along the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to a 1010 mb low near 00N42W. Isolated moderate convection is noted south of 05N and east of 20W.
A Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force is in effect for the coastal waters of the NE Gulf. Please, read the Special Features section for more details.
As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from South Florida near 26N82W to the Bay of Campeche. Winds are NW strong to near gale with seas 8-12 ft in the SE half of the Gulf and fresh to strong N with seas 5-10 ft in the NW half of the Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 30 NM of the front, primarily in the Florida Straits.
For the forecast, the cold front will shift southeast of the area by this evening. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas prevail in the wake of the front. Conditions will improve from NW to SE through tonight. A reinforcing front and surge of fresh to strong northerly winds may impact the basin this weekend.
A trough extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras and a cold front is just now reaching the Yucatan Channel. Except for some fresh E trades just north of Colombia and Venezuela, winds across the Caribbean are moderate or weaker. Seas across the Caribbean are 2-6 ft. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 14N-18N between 74W-79W. Scattered showers are also located within 30 NM of the trough and the front.
For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong offshore of NW Colombia Fri night through the weekend and into early next week. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean later today, stall from E Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in the upcoming weekend and early next week leading to increasing winds and building seas across the basin. A reinforcing front and surge of winds will arrive in the NW Caribbean early next week.
Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.
A cold front extends from 31N72W to the northern Bahamas, with fresh to strong winds on either side N of 27N and W of 66W. A reinforcing cold front also extends from 31N77W to central Florida. From within 120 NM east of the leading cold front westward to the US coast, winds are fresh to strong. Seas are 6-9 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 NM of the leading cold front. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 19N41W to 21N38W, driven by a co-located, upper-level low. While winds and seas with it are not noteworthy, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 19N-26N between 30W-40W. Elsewhere, no other significant features are noted. However, the NE to E trades are fresh to strong east of 40W from 15N-25N. Seas is the area are 5-10 ft. Remainder of waters has winds moderate or weaker and seas 5-8 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the two aforementioned cold fronts will merge and reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and extend from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale force tonight east of the front and N of 29N. Another cold front may impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services