Tropical Weather Reports

in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA

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Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Oct 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Tropical Storm Oscar is centered near 21.0N 76.1W at 21/2100 UTC or 120 nm WNW of the eastern tip of Cuba, moving NNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong is from 17N to 23N between 70W and 76W. Seas are peaking near 10 ft. Oscar is forecast to turn northward and northeastward with some increase in forward speed while it moves on the southeastern and eastern side of a mid-level trough. The tropical cyclone should move back over water soon, so some restrengthening is possible during the next day or two. However, Oscar will be moving into an area of strong upper-level winds over the next couple of days which should impart significant westerly shear over the system. Also, the cyclone is expected to remain in a relatively dry air mass to the north of the Greater Antilles. Thus, only slight restrengthening seems possible. The primary hazard associated with Oscar will continue to be heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. Over the last 24 hours, a rainfall total of nearly 15 inches was reported at Punta de Maisi on the eastern tip of Cuba. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory for Oscar at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

TROPICAL WAVES

The axis of a tropical wave is near 35W from 03N to 14N, moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 30W and 35W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 54W from 16N southward, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 50W and 60W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 78W, from Jamaica southward. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 12N between the coast of Colombia and 78W.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and extends southwestward to 12N26W. No significant convection is noted.

GULF OF MEXICO

High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are E of 90W, with moderate winds W of 90W. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the SW Gulf, and 5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the eastern United States will maintain fresh NE winds and large NE swell into early Tue, before the high pressure starts to weaken across the Gulf and conditions improve for the rest of the week. New high pressure over the southeastern United States will build across the basin Fri night through Sat night bringing a modest increase in winds and seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Oscar.

Mainly light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, prevail over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range in the eastern Caribbean, and 4-7 ft in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Oscar is inland over eastern Cuba near 21.0N 76.1W at 5 PM EDT, and is drifting N-NW at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Oscar will move northward and back over water reaching near 21.8N 75.4W tonight, then reach near 23.3N 74.1W Tue afternoon, then exit the region to the NE through Wed. A weak elongated trough will linger from near eastern Cuba to the SW Caribbean through Wed. High pressure over the eastern United States will begin to build southward across the region Thu night through Sat and act to freshen the trade wind flow basin-wide.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Oscar.

Broad troughing generally prevails over the waters W of 55W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 10 to 12 ft are over the waters N of 26N and W of 66W. Elsewhere W of 55W, Light to gentle winds, and seas of 6-9 ft prevail in NE Swell. High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N and E of 55W. Fresh to strong winds are found from 08N to 15N and E of 35W, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Oscar is inland over eastern Cuba near 20.3N 75.4W at 11 AM EDT, and is drifting W-NW at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Oscar will remain over eastern Cuba today then move northward and back over water reaching near 21.0N 75.3W this evening, then move into the SE Bahamas near 22.2N 74.7W Tue morning, then continue northeastward and reach near 23.7N 73.1W Tue evening, then move into the open Atlantic reaching near 25.6N 71.2W Wed morning, and near 28.3N 68.3W Wed evening, before dissipating Thu morning. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds and large NE swell will persist mainly north of 25N and west of 67W through mid week, between high pressure over the southeast U.S. and Oscar to the southeast. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida Fri.

Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services

Summary for Tropical Storm Oscar

As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 21

CENTER OF OSCAR NEARING THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA...

  • Location: 21.0, -76.1
  • Max sustained: 40 mph
  • Moving: NNW at 7 mph
  • Min pressure: 1004 mb

Key message:

  1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas.
  2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue into this evening across portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are also expected in portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday.