Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Nov 18 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
The monsoon trough extends from near 14N17W, then southwestward to 10N22W. The ITCZ extends westward from 10N22W to 03.5N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between the west coast of Africa and 48W.
A stationary front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida to SW Alabama. A surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, high pressure north of the area dominates the remainder of the basin. Under this weather pattern, scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the central and western Gulf, and mainly light winds elsewhere. Slight seas dominate most of the Gulf waters.
For the forecast, a stationary front offshore Florida will dissipate by Tue morning. High pressure will then build southward into the eastern Gulf, allowing moderate to fresh southeast winds to establish Tue night through Thu over the central and western Gulf. Looking ahead, a weak cold front is likely to move into the northern Gulf by the weekend.
A weak low of 1013 mb is spinning midway between the Isle of Youth, Cuba and the Cayman Islands. A surface trough extends from the low center northward. This low is supporting scattered moderate convection over the offshore waters of central Cuba. Gentle to moderate NE winds are noted on the NW quadrant of the low center. A few showers, with embedded thunderstorms are affecting the Leeward Islands. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft exist for the remainder of the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the rest of the basin.
For the forecast, a 1013 mb low pressure between Grand Cayman and the Isle of Youth will devolve into a surface trough tonight, move into the Yucatan Channel Tue, then dissipate Wed. High pressure building from the north will gradually cause tradewinds to return to normal magnitude by mid-week, with moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds expected Wed into the weekend. Pulsing strong winds are possible offshore Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours.
A cold front has stalled from SE of Bermuda to near West Palm Beach, Florida. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are ahead of the front affecting the waters N of 28.5N between 61W and 70W. Rough seas, in long period NW swell, follow the front. Scattered moderate convection is found north of 21.5N between 55W and 61.5W in association to a surface trough. Farther E, a stationary front enters the forecast area near 31N36W, and extends SW to near 23N46W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted along this front. The remainder of the east and central Atlantic are under the influence of a 1029 mb high pressure located NW of the Azores. Moderate to fresh trades, and moderate to rough seas dominate the tropical Atlantic, mainly E of 55W. A surface trough remains E of the Lesser Antilles along 54W/55W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 09.5N to 12N between 48W and 57W in association with this trough.
For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will weaken Tue then dissipate Wed. High pressure will build behind the front between the Carolinas and Bermuda through Fri, supporting gentle breezes north of 25N and moderate winds and farther south. Seas will generally be moderate or less, but NW swell will lead to rough seas N of 28N and E of 70W into Tue night. Looking ahead, SW winds may increase slightly off northeast Florida late Fri through Sat ahead of a weak cold front moving through the southeast U.S.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services