Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Mar 9 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 03N and W of 20W.
A dissipating frontal boundary is analyzed inland over the NW Gulf coast, enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms along the immediate coast. A surface trough in the W Gulf is also enhancing showers and thunderstorms near the north end of the trough axis. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are occurring across much of the basin, except for off the northern Yucatan Peninsula where E winds are moderate to fresh. Seas of 2 to 5 ft are noted over much of the Gulf.
For the forecast, a dissipating stationary front near the coast of Texas and Louisiana will continue to trigger showers and thunderstorms tonight before dissipating on Mon. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from the Bermuda High will remain in the Gulf through midweek. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pusling to between fresh and strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the northeastern Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. A cold front may impact the northwestern Gulf beginning Wed night, before moving across the basin through Fri night with increasing winds and seas behind it.
A strong pressure gradient between the Colombian low and high pressure to the north is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean as noted via recent scatterometer data. Winds are moderate to fresh across much of the remaining basin. Seas of 8-10 ft prevail in the central Caribbean. Seas are moderate in the eastern and SW Caribbean, while slight seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and a Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the eastern basin through Tue, and the central basin through Wed. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to near gale- force during the night-time hours through Wed night. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse near the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras through mid-week. Large easterly trade- wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser Antilles through Wed. Marine conditions will improve slightly by the end of the week as the pressure gradient weakens due to a weak cold front approaching the NW Caribbean.
Surface ridging dominates the central and western tropical Atlantic, supporting widespread moderate to fresh trade winds south of 27N. Pockets of locally strong trade winds are noted via scatterometer data east of the Lesser Antilles. Rough seas in E swell are noted via buoy and altimeter data in this region as well as east. of the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, the remnants of a frontal boundary are analyzed as a surface trough, extending from 31N33W to 24N38W. Scatterometer data depict strong NE winds and rough seas occurring N of 30N between the trough and 45W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas in NE swell prevail off the coast of northwest Africa, supported by a strong pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high to the north and lower pressures over northwest Africa. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail over the rest of the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail south of 25N through midweek, reaching strong north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a potential cold front. That front may move offshore Thu, weakening and slowing from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by late Thu night.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services