Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Sep 14 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Tropical Storm Gordon is centered near 20.1N 40.9W at 14/0900 UTC or 990 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The 12 ft seas are noted within 120 nm in the northern semicircle with maximum seas to 14 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 17N to 22N between 33W and 41W. Some weakening is anticipated over the next day or so, and Gordon is forecast to become a depression by early Sunday. Gradual restrengthening is possible by the middle part of next week.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression Seven NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 23W from 03N to 16N. The wave is estimated to be moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06N to 08N between 20W and the wave axis.
A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles with axis along 62W from 08N to 20N. It is moving westward at around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W extending from 20N to western Venezuela. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 13N33W, and then resumes near 15N44W to 11N50W. The ITCZ extends from 11N50W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N and E of 35W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ.
A stationary front extends from the Florida Alabama border to the central Gulf. A stationary front extends from the far western Florida Panhandle to just north of Tampa Bay. A pre-frontal trough is also analyzed from 27N85W to near 23N90W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail across the basin, except for seas 2 to 3 ft over the NE Gulf.
For the forecast, high pressure will become established over the north-central Gulf this weekend, with mainly tranquil conditions expected throughout the basin.
Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the waves moving across the basin.
A surface trough is analyzed S of Cuba southeastward from 20N78W to 18N79W. A relatively fair and modest trade-wind pattern continues across much of the basin. Gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the central and eastern sections of the basin. Gentle northeast to east and to southeast winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft remain over the rest of the basin.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse offshore of eastern Honduras and in the south-central Caribbean through the beginning of next week. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the waters the next several days.
Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Gordon in the central Atlantic, and the Tropical Waves section for details on the wave in the basin.
A surface trough extends from 31N76W to South Florida. Scattered showers is noted N of 26N and W of 70W. To the E, an upper-level trough is interacting with a surface trough over the central Atlantic, generating scattered moderate convection across areas N of 25N between 54W and 69W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin away from Tropical Storm Gordon. Earlier scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft occurring from the Canary Islands to the W coast of Africa, generally N of 25N and east of 26W. The remainder of the basin has gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevailing.
For the forecast west of 55W, a non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend along a frontal boundary a few hundred NM off the southeastern U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics thereafter over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm could form early next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building seas will impact the waters near 30N by the end of the weekend into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail otherwise.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services