Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Dec 13 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
West Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force winds are forecast to begin at 15/0000 UTC, lasting through 15/1200 UTC, northwest of a cold front that will move across the western Atlantic waters. Seas will range from 12-14 ft. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.
East Atlantic Gale Warning: MeteoFrance has issued a Gale Warning for the MADEIRA and CANARIAS Marine Zones. For Madeira, the warning is valid through 13/2100 UTC, and for Canarias, the warning is valid through 14/0000 UTC. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by MeteoFrance at: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more information.
East Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Continuing strong to near- gale force north winds in the lee of a dissipated frontal boundary has built a significant area of large, long period N swell in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Seas 12 ft or greater are north of 15N and east of 35W, with peak seas to 22 ft near the Canary Islands. The swell direction is N with 15-19 sec periods. Peak seas are forecast to diminish tonight, subsiding below 12 ft by early Monday morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by MeteoFrance at: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more information.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through 08N13W and extends to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 11N east of 28W.
Scattered moderate convection, associated with a surface trough, is from 25N to 29N between 94W and 96W in the NW Gulf waters. 1024 mb high pressure centered over N Florida provides for gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the Gulf, with 2-4 ft seas. Locally fresh winds are evident on a recent satellite scatterometer pass in the Straits of Florida. A few showers and tstorms are also evident in the Straits on satellite imagery.
For the forecast, weak high pressure located over north Florida and the adjacent Atlantic will slide northeastward and into the NW Atlantic through tonight to produce moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds across the S and W Gulf. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of the basin through Sat. The next cold front is expected to enter the northern Gulf on Sun morning, bringing strong N to NE winds and building seas behind the front. The front is expected to reach the south-central Gulf along 24N by Mon morning, and move south of the basin Mon night.
Recent satellite scatterometer data indicates pulsing strong to near-gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 7-9 ft in this region. Elsewhere, in the central Caribbean, fresh to strong winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail. Fresh NE winds are also noted in the Windward Passage. These winds are the results of strong high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic and lower pressure over South America. A surface trough, the remnants of the last frontal boundary, persists in the NW Caribbean waters. Scattered showers and tstorms are in these waters. NE winds are gentle to moderate, with 3-5 ft seas. In the E Caribbean, moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are expected over the central Caribbean through Sun morning due to the pressure gradient between the Colombian low and a modest western Atlantic ridge. Winds will pulse to near gale-force at night offshore of northern Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will prevail over the Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the eastern part of the basin through Mon night. A cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean Mon, accompanied by increasing winds and building seas behind the front. This front is expected to reach from central Cuba to N Belize Tue evening, then will begin to stall and weaken through Wed.
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on GALE WARNINGS for the western and eastern Atlantic Ocean, and a SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT in the eastern Atlantic.
Strong 1032 mb high pressure centered near 32N32W continues to build across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, and support N winds to gale force near the Canary Islands, where a GALE WARNING remains in effect. Strong to near-gale force N winds become fresh to strong NE winds south of 25N to the ITCZ. These weather conditions have built a large area of swell with seas in excess of 8 ft over the entire Atlantic Ocean east of 60W. West of 40W, the swell direction is primarily E with 12-13 sec periods. East of 40W, the swell direction is N with 15-19 sec periods. Descriptions of areas with higher seas associated with the SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT are found in SPECIAL FEATURES. Elsewhere, 4-7 ft seas and moderate or weaker winds prevail.
For the forecast, the stationary front is forecast to lift northward and dissipate. The next strong cold front is slated to move off the coast of the southeastern United States on Sun, with strong to gale-force winds and quickly building seas expected behind the front through Mon morning. The front is forecast to reach from just E of Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Mon morning, then weaken considerably as it reaches from 30N55W to the SE Bahamas and central Cuba Tue morning. Large N swell will build in across the regional waters behind the front Sun night through Tue morning before subsiding.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services