Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Dec 29 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is analyzed from near Mobile Bay to the Texas-Mexico border. Scatterometer data indicates strong to near-gale force N to NW winds following the front. Gale force winds and rough seas are ongoing in the wake of the front off the coast of Texas and Louisiana, confirmed by a 1531 UTC Metop-B scatterometer pass. These conditions will expand to areas offshore of Tampico and Veracruz later this afternoon and tonight. Prolonged gale force winds and significant very rough seas will persist over the western Bay of Campeche through late Tue night. Seas will peak around 20 ft off Veracruz Tue. Conditions will improve from north to south by midweek.
Central Atlantic Gale and Significant Swell: A cold front, stemming from a storm-force low north of the area, enters the discussion waters near 31N41W and then curves southwestward and westward to near 24N72W, where it becomes a stationary front that extends northwestward to 29N77W. Scattered moderate convection producing gale-force winds is seen ahead of the front out to about 35W and N of 25N, confirmed by a 1247 UTC Metop-C scatterometer pass. Strong to near- gale force winds with frequent gusts to gale force are on either side of the front N of 24N between 35W and 55W. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds are over the waters N of 22N between 33W and 61W. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected to end this afternoon. Large N swell generated from the storm system is producing very rough seas greater than 12 ft over the forecast waters N of 23N between 37W and 62W. These very rough seas will shift eastward while gradually subsiding from south to north through the week.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 02N51W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 00N to 07N and E of 26W.
Please read the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning.
A surface trough is noted over the W Gulf, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, as well as moderate winds are in the vicinity of the trough. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of high pressure, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near the SW FL coast. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range in the eastern Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, a strong cold front in the northern Gulf will sweep over the basin through late Tue. Gale force winds and very rough seas will occur over the northwestern basin through early this afternoon, and severe gales are expected to develop offshore of Tampico this afternoon, and offshore of Veracruz this evening. Very rough seas, peaking near 20 ft, will accompany these winds. Gales and significant rough seas will continue over the western Bay of Campeche through late Tue night. Elsewhere behind the front, widespread strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas are expected, with winds and seas slowly diminishing from north to south Tue into early Wed. High pressure will build over the northern Gulf around midweek, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas over the basin.
The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas of 7-10 ft over the south central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail over the eastern and north central Caribbean. Moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh trade winds will occur over the central Caribbean through Tue as high pressure prevails north of the basin. Winds will pulse to strong speeds in the south-central Caribbean, and may approach near-gale force offshore of Colombia late tonight. Rough seas are expected near and to the west of the strongest winds. Over the Atlantic waters, rough seas in N swell are expected through late Thu before seas subside. Looking ahead, a cold front is slated to enter the northwestern Caribbean on Tue, and fresh to locally strong N winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front, including through the Yucatan Channel. The front will weaken and eventually dissipate over the northwestern basin by late week.
See the Special Features section above for details on a gale warning and a significant swell event in the central Atlantic.
In addition to the conditions described in the Special Features section, rough seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 20N between 21W and 68W, up to the area of very rough seas outlined above. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are over the deep tropics S of 12N between 25W and 60W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NW winds and very rough seas will prevail north of 23N and east of 62W into this afternoon as a strong cold front in the central Atlantic moves eastward. Widespread rough seas associated with this front will continue east of 68W today, with seas slowly subsiding from west to east through midweek. Elsewhere, fresh W to SW winds offshore of northern and central Florida will increase to strong speeds this afternoon as a strong cold front moves through the southern United States. The front is slated to push off the coast later today, with fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas expected in the wake of the front. The front will progress eastward through midweek, with fresh to strong SW winds likely ahead of the front, and fresh to locally strong NW winds following the front. Rough seas associated with the front are expected north of 28N, with seas subsiding from west to east Tue through Wed. Looking ahead, the next cold front moving off the coast of the United States is forecast to enter the northwest tropical Atlantic late this week, with increasing winds and building seas likely near and behind the front.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services