Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
to receive our free report directly to your inbox
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jan 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across the Gulf from near S Florida to N of the Yucatan Channel to the central Bay of Campeche where it is stalling. Gale force NW to N winds to 40 kt with seas to 18 ft are occurring over the SW Gulf in the wake of the front. Strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas follow the front elsewhere. The front will weaken and stall from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Tue morning. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve tonight into Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea near 10.5N14W and continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to the coast of northern Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 09N between 22W and 45W.
Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning.
A cold front is moving across the Gulf from near S Florida to N of the Yucatan Channel to the central Bay of Campeche where it is stalling. Gale force NW to N winds to 40 kt with seas to 18 ft are occurring over the SW Gulf in the wake of the front. Strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas follow the front elsewhere. Moderate to fresh NE winds and slight to moderate seas are analyzed ahead of the front in the far SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida.
For the forecast, the front will weaken and stall from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Tue morning. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve tonight into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed. The next cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds and building seas by Wed night, with that front rapidly shifting SE of the basin Thu. Conditions should improve by the end of the week.
A strong and broad ridge north of the Caribbean continues to support strong to near gale-force NE-E winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE-E breezes and moderate seas prevail. No significant convection is noted in the Caribbean.
For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through much of the week due to the pressure gradient between high pressure NE of the region and low pressure over northern Colombia, resulting in rough seas. Pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast south of Hispaniola, in the Windward passage, and in the lee of Cuba through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. A weakening stationary front is forecast to extend across western Cuba and the northern Yucatan peninsula by Tue morning while gradually dissipating. Another cold front may move into the NW part of the basin Thu.
A strong cold front extends from just W of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas and S Florida with fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas building behind it. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under a weak pressure gradient that supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.
A surface trough is analyzed at 64W and north of 20N. The interaction of this feature and divergence aloft sustains scattered showers east of the boundary. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge over the far NE Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are noted between 42W and 55W. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 5-9 ft are found south of 25N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the front will become stationary as it dissipates on Tue. Then, high pressure will follow the front. Looking ahead, the next cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed night, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas late Thu night. At that time, gale conditions are possible in the wake of the front near 31N with building seas across the waters.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services