Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Jan 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 07N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N25W to 01N33W to 01N40W and to near 01N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 06N between 40W and 47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm southeast of the ITCZ between 17W-20W. Similar convection is to the southeast from 01N to 02N between 12W-18W.
A trough is analyzed from just offshore Texas near 28N96W to 23N97W and to just inland Mexico at 18N94W. satellite imagery shows broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds across most of the western Gulf to the west of a line from near 29N92W to 27N94W to 22N93W and to 18.5N94W. Patches of mostly light rain and isolated showers are possible with these clouds.
High pressure of 1021 mb is just south of Louisiana coast near 29N91W. It supports a rather weak gradient across the area that is generally allowing for light to gentle winds northerly winds over most of the basin, with the exception of moderate northeast winds over the central and eastern Bay of Campeche, and for fresh northwest to north winds south of 20N west of 95W. Seas are in the range of 2 to 4 ft, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft over the SW Gulf, and for 3 to 5 ft seas over the southeastern part of the basin.
For the forecast, moderate or lighter winds will prevail across the basin through early Wed, except locally fresh south of 22N. The next cold front will move into the Gulf Wed and Wed night. The front will shift quickly southeast of the basin by Thu evening, and will be followed by increasing winds and building seas. Conditions will improve Thu night into the weekend. A reinforcing surge of fresh northerly winds may impact the basin late in the weekend.
A 0231Z Ascat satellite data pass indicates that fresh to strong trades are confined to south of about 13N and between 73W and 78W, including the waters adjacent to the coast of northwest Colombia. Seas with these winds are 6 to 9 ft. The Ascat data shows that moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere east of 83W, and gentle to moderate northeast winds are west of 83W, with the majority of the moderate speeds near and over the Yucatan Channel, and south from there to near 18N. Seas are mostly 2 to 4 ft elsewhere, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft from 15N to 18W west of 76W, including the Gulf of Honduras and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 15N between 68W and 76W.
satellite imagery shows isolated showers confined to the southwestern part of the basin south of 11N and west of 81W to near the coast of northern Panama.
For the forecast, pulsing of fresh to strong winds offshore of northwest Colombia will diminish Thu, then return this upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. A cold front will move across the northwestern Caribbean on Thu, then stall from eastern Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in the upcoming weekend and into early next week leading to increasing winds across the basin.
A stationary front extends from near 31N62W southwestward to 28N72W, then to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are west of the front to near 70W and north of 28N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in northwest to north swell within this area. Light east to southeast winds are elsewhere west of the front, except for moderate south winds north of 29N west of 77W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in east swell over these areas.
Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds are evident northwest of the front east of about 73W. Patches of light to moderate rain and isolated showers are possible with these clouds. Scattered to broken low clouds, and broken to overcast mid-level clouds are northwest of the front west of 76W. Isolated mostly light showers are over the Straits of Florida. Light rain in scattered to broken low clouds is along and just offshore northern and central ad Florida, where a trough resides. To the southeast of the frontal boundary, two weak but rather persistent troughs are evident. The first one along a position from near 26N72W to just north of eastern Cuba, and the second one from near 29N63W to 23N65W. No significant convection is noted with these troughs. Isolated, small showers may be possible near the troughs. Over the central Atlantic, a nearly stationary large upper-level low is identified on water vapor imagery to be near 24N50W. Scattered showers and a thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the low. To the east and southeast of the low, an extensive area of broken to overcast clouds is seen from 19N to 27.5N between 34W and 35W. Patches of moderate rain, with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within this area of clouds.
Farther east, a broad ridge that is anchored by a 1029 mb high that is north of the area at 34N29W controls the weather pattern there. A tight gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressure to its south is sustaining fresh to strong trades south of 25N and east of 48W. Fully developed seas with these winds are in the range of 8 to 10 ft. Mostly fresh trades are south of 25N between 48W and 57W along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle northeast to east winds are between 57W and the above mentioned frontal boundary. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in an east swell over this part of the area, with the exceptions of lower seas of 2 to 4 ft over the waters within the Bahama Island chain, and of seas of around 2 ft south of 25N west of 79W, including the Straits of Florida.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary frontal boundary will gradually dissipate into early Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. A pre-frontal trough is forecast to emerge off the coast of northeast Florida Wed morning, and quickly move eastward accompanied by fresh to strong winds with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N. The next cold front is forecast to move over the northwest part of the area by Thu morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the southeastern Bahamas Fri morning, then extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning, where it will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the front through Fri. Winds may reach gale-force Thu night east of the front and north of 30N. A reinforcing front may impact the basin late during the upcoming weekend.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services