Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
to receive our free report directly to your inbox
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Dec 21 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 07N12W then continues to 06N14W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and extends to 05N30W and 01N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 16W and 41W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 00N to 06N between 45W and 51W.
Surface ridging dominates basin-wide providing gentle to moderate SE to S winds W of 90W and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere. Seas across the region are slight. Otherwise, dense for is expected mainly over Texas and SW Louisiana coastal waters with visibilities less than half nautical miles. Marines over the NW Gulf waters should exercise caution.
For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will prevail over much of the Gulf through this evening. Fresh E to NE winds will develop tonight across portions of the E Gulf and in the Bay of Campeche as a cold front moving across the SW N Atlantic waters tighten the pressure gradient over that region. Building high pressure in the wake of the front will accelerate winds in the Straits of Florida to strong speeds Mon afternoon into late Tue. Rough seas will develop with these winds.
High pressure of 1022 mb offshore the Carolinas and low pressure over NW Colombia continue to support strong to near gale force NE to E winds over the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean and fresh winds elsewhere in the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas are rough to 10 ft with the strongest winds and moderate elsewhere in the central and E basin. Over the NW basin, winds are moderate from the NE to E and seas are slight.
For the forecast, predominant surface ridging over the Atlantic subtropical waters extending to the northern Caribbean, and the climatological area of low pressure over NW Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds off Colombia, likely reaching near gale-force speed at night. Rough seas to 10 ft is expected with these winds. Moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, south of the Dominican Republic and in the Windward Passage will reach strong speeds Mon evening as a strong cold front moves across the Bahamas through Tue evening. Strong high pressure building on the wake of the front will sustain these strong NE winds through Thu night. Otherwise, mixed long period swell over the tropical Atlantic waters will subside Mon evening. New long-period northerly swell associated with the passage of the cold front will affect the tropical Atlantic waters Wed morning into Thu.
Two surface high centers, one of 1024 mb and another of 1022 mb, extend a ridge across the SW N Atlantic waters where it is intercepted by a weakening stationary front that extends from 31N61W to 24N76W. The remainder subtropical waters E of 50W are dominated by the Azores High which center of 1032 mb is supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft E of 50W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere W of 50W, except for locally fresh trades between Hispaniola and 22N.
For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will prevail south of 22N through today. Widespread strong to locally near-gale force NE winds and rough seas are expected over the northwest tropical Atlantic by early Mon, as a strong cold front moves off the coast of the southeastern United States. The front will rapidly progress eastward through midweek, supporting expanding strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas into the central basin. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will be possible east of 75W Tue through midweek. Looking ahead, strong winds and rough seas may be reinforced in the central waters east of 75W by the middle of next week as a new cold front moves through the region.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services