Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue May 13 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near Boke, then extends southwestward to near 05N18W. An ITCZ continues from 05N18W across 02N35W to near Macapa in the State of Amapa, Brazil. Widely scattered moderate convection is present south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 06N between 10W and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the ITCZ fro 01N to 06N between 18W and the coast of northeastern Brazil/French Guiana.
The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and northwestern Colombia.
The southwestern end of a weakening cold front is causing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Florida Keys. A 1016 mb high pressure over the southeastern Gulf is strengthening this morning. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist at the south-central and southeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found at the west-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Gulf.
For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Florida Straits will linger through this morning. Meanwhile, the aforementioned high pressure should steadily strengthen this afternoon through Wed. This will cause fresh to strong southerly winds along with moderate to rough seas at the northwestern Gulf and off the Mexico/Texas border this afternoon through Thu. As the high drifts eastward, moderate to fresh southerly winds will linger at the western and central Gulf through the weekend.
Two modest surface troughs are producing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern basin, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Tight gradient between a broad surface ridge near 25N and low pressure over northern Colombia is sustaining strong to near-gale easterly winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft at the south-central basin. Mainly fresh ENE to E winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are evident at the north-central and southwestern basin, except gentle to moderate ENE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate NE swell near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to locally fresh ENE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the eastern basin, including the Mona Passage. Light to gentle winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail at the northwestern basin.
For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds along with moderate to rough seas will persist across the central Caribbean through this morning, and off northwestern Colombia through this evening. These winds offshore from northwestern Colombia will occasionally gust to gale force this morning. Both winds and seas are expected to gradually diminish tonight through Wed. Fresh E winds with moderate to rough seas are anticipated at the northeastern basin through this evening, including the Atlantic passages. Finally, pulsing fresh to strong E winds during the nighttime hours are going to occur in the Gulf of Honduras by Wed evening.
A weakening cold front curves southwestward from off the Carolina coast across 31N77W to southeast of the Florida Keys. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near this boundary from the northwest Bahamas northward to beyond 31N between 74W and 80W. Farther east, a surface trough extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N57W to 27N67W. Patchy showers are found up to 50 nm along either side of this feature. Convergent trades are coupling with a broad upper-level trough in the vicinity to generate scattered moderate convection just east of the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.
An elongated 1025 mb high near 30N37W is supporting gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 23N between 35W and 70W. To the west, moderate to fresh with locally strong SE to S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident near the aforementioned cold front north of 20N between 70W and 78W. Gentle to moderate W to SW winds with seas at 3 to 6 ft exist off the eastern Florida coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N/23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft dominate. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the rest of the Atlantic west of 35W.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SE winds and rough seas will linger offshore of Florida through today as the aforementioned cold front moves east toward the western Atlantic. As the cold front lifts northeastward into the western Atlantic tonight and Wed, winds will become SW to W behind the front and weaken. Farther south, pulsing fresh to strong E winds are expected each afternoon and evening offshore of northern Hispaniola through Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and rough seas in mixed NE and SE swell will prevail south of 25N this week, including across the Atlantic passages into the eastern Caribbean.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services