Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Apr 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N13W, then continues SW to 02N16W. The ITCZ extends from 02N16W to 00N28W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 06S to 05N between 12W and 30W.
A ridge extends from high pressure over the western Atlantic across Florida into the Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the diurnal trough Yucatan Peninsula supports fresh E to SE winds within 90 nm of the coast of the Yucatan. Elsewhere, mainly moderate E winds prevail, except for the NE Gulf where light to gentle winds dominate. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the NE basin.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail across most of the basin through Sat. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a trough will allow fresh to strong winds to pulse during the evenings. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sun and Sun night. The front will stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon.
Ridging N of the Bahamas is forcing fresh NE winds through the Windward Passage and S of Cuba, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Fresh to locally strong winds with seas 4 to 6 ft are also occurring just north of Colombia. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 3 to 5 ft.
For the forecast, high pressure over the west-central Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will maintain fresh trade winds and moderate seas off the coast of Colombia into Thu, then mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected the remainder of the week. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds and moderate seas will persist south of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage through tonight. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin late in the week.
An upper-low is inducing a surface trough that extends from S of Bermuda to just NW of the Mon Passage. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 19N to 24N between 62W and 67W. Farther northeast, a stationary front extends from 31N35W to 29.5N47W. Convection previously associated with this feature has dissipated. A Bermuda- Azores High located north of the forecast waters is interacting with the surface trough to cause moderate to fresh NE winds from Bermuda, across the Bahamas, and to the Cuban coast. Seas are 5 to 9 ft east of the Bahamas. A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda- Azores High and lower pressure in the vicinity over the ITCZ is forcing moderate to locally fresh NE to E trades and moderate to rough seas over the remainder of the forecast waters. Near the coast of NW Africa, NE winds are fresh to locally strong north of 29N and east of 27W with seas of 7 to 10 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough between Bermuda and the Mona Passage will drift west toward the Turks and Caicos Islands through tonight, then will remain nearly stationary through late Thu while gradually dissipating. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will persist west of the trough across the southern Bahamas through tonight, with conditions gradually improving thereafter as the trough weakens. High pressure will follow the trough. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services