Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
to receive our free report directly to your inbox
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Jan 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Gulf of America and Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected to enter the northern Gulf of America and also exit the southeastern U.S. coast later this evening. It will move southeastward across the Gulf and western Atlantic through Friday. Behind the front, NW to N winds at the Gulf, and SW to NW winds at the western Atlantic will increase quickly. Strong winds with frequent gusts to gale force will occur at the northeastern and east-central Gulf early Thursday morning through early Thursday afternoon. Sustained near-gale to gale- force winds are anticipated in the western Atlantic late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Under the strongest winds, seas will peak near 12 ft in the Gulf, and from 12 to 14 ft at the western Atlantic. Conditions should gradually improve at the Gulf late Thursday night, and at the Atlantic Friday.
Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more detail.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea just north of Conakry, then runs southwestward to 06N15W. An ITCZ curves westward from 06N15W to 02N30W to 04N46W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough from 00N to 03N between 10W and 20W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near and up to 160 nm north of the ITCZ west of 37W.
Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale Warning.
A pre-frontal trough extends southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to the northwestern Gulf. Scattered showers are occurring up to 50 nm along either side of this feature. A surface trough is causing similar conditions across the west-central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche. A forming stationary front is triggering patchy showers at the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the far northwestern and north-central Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh N winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted at the far west-central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche. A 1017 mb high is supporting light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft for the rest of the southwestern Gulf. Mainly gentle NW to N winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, a strong cold front will move into the Gulf later this afternoon and evening. The front will move quickly southeast of the Gulf by Thu evening, and be followed by increasing winds and building seas. Conditions will improve Thu night into the weekend. A reinforcing surge of fresh to strong northerly winds may impact the Gulf late in the weekend.
A surface trough is generating scattered moderate convection from the Yucatan Channel to the western Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, a trade-wind regime continues across the Caribbean Sea. Fresh with locally strong ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh E winds are seen at the north-central basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas dominate the northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate NNE to E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the western Gulf of Honduras.
For the forecast, pulsing of fresh to strong winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will diminish by Thu, then return this weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail through tonight. A cold front will move into the northwestern basin Thu, stall from eastern Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and then dissipate on Sat. The pressure gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in the upcoming weekend and early next week leading to increasing winds and building seas across the basin.
Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale Warning.
A forming stationary front runs northward from the Florida Straits, parallel to the Florida east coast to beyond 31N78W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are flaring up near this boundary, including the northwest Bahamas. A surface trough extends northeastward from just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands to near 30N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 30 nm along either side of this feature east of 65W. An upper- level low in the central Atlantic near 24N43W is triggering widely scattered showers from 14N to 21N between 35W and 47W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.
Fresh to strong S to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen near the forming stationary front east of Florida. Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft seas exist north of 20N between 50W and 75W. Farther east, north of 20N between 35W and 50W, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are found. For the tropical Atlantic from 03N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, mostly gentle southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a pre-frontal trough from the Gulf of America will emerge with the forming stationary front off the east coast of Florida later this morning, accompanied by fresh to strong winds with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N. The next cold front will enter the waters off northeastern Florida by Thu morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the southeast Bahamas Fri morning, and extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale force Thu night east of the front and north of 29N. A reinforcing front may impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services