Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Dec 25 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Central Atlantic Gales and Significant Swell: A strong cold front extends from 31N59W to 28N70W and to 31N77W. Gale force winds of 30 to 35 kt behind the front to near 63W will continue until late this morning. However, large NW swell behind the cold front will cause 12 to 15 ft seas north of 30N between 57W and 67W late tonight. Seas are expected to build higher to between 12 and 20 ft and spread to 27N between 53W and 69W this morning. These seas will gradually subside to between 12 and 17 ft but shift to north of 25N between 49W and 64W by this evening.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information.
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from the coast of Africa near 09N13W, and continues southwestward to near 05N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to 04N40W and to near 05N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 43W and 50W, and within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between 43W-45W.
A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms at the central Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, A 1027 mb high at the northeastern Gulf is dominating the rest of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are present at the south-central and southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft seas are over the north-central Gulf. Light to gentle winds with seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, the 1027 mb high over the NE Gulf will continue to support moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate to rough seas across the south-central and southeastern Gulf through tonight. Areas of fog, some could be dense, will continue to be possible across the northern Gulf through the weekend. A ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region the remainder of the week, with a high pressure center located over the northeast Gulf through Sat while weakening. This system will produce mainly a gentle to moderate wind flow with slight to moderate seas. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf on Mon, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas, except gale conditions will be possible in the far W central Gulf, and in the northwest part of the SW Gulf Mon night. Occasional gusts to gale force may be possible in the NW Gulf Mon and Mon night.
A robust trade-wind regime continues across much of the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are creating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras, and south of Haiti. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident at the south-central basin, lee of Cuba, near the Windward Passage and near Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate trades and 3 to 5 ft seas are seen at the eastern basin. Moderate to fresh trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, strong high pressure across the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and the central Caribbean through tonight, except through Mon off Colombia. Long period northerly swell moving into the northeastern passages will gradually subside Thu. This will be followed by additional northerly swell arriving into northeastern passages late Fri into Sat before subsiding Sun.
See the Special Features at the beginning about Gale conditions behind a cold front and ongoing significant swell.
A strong cold front is analyzed from 31N59W to 28N70W and to 31N77W. Scattered showers and and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 60 nm north of the front. Scattered o numerous showers and isolated strong thunderstorms north of 27N between 54W and 60W. Over the central Atlantic, a weakening stationary front reaches southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N37W to 27N43W and to 24N54W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 21N between 38W and 49W.
Outside the area mentioned in the Special Features section, Moderate to fresh W to NW winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft dominate north of 27N between 52W and 72W. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of 20N and west of 72W. From 20N to 27N between 52W and 72W, gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft in large northerly swell exist. Farther east, north of 20N between 35W and 52W, gentle to moderate SE to S winds with 7 to 10 ft seas in large NW swell are noted. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate northeast to east winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually dissipate tonight. The aforementioned strong cold front is anticipated to move across the waters east of the Bahamas through this morning while weakening. Large swell is impacting the waters northeast and east of the Bahamas. Strong winds and a new set of large reinforcing swell will follow this front, covering the waters east of 70W through tonight. Winds to gale force are impacting the waters north of 30N southeast of Bermuda, but should diminish below gale force this morning. Another cold front will move over the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Fri before moving east of the area Sat. It will be followed by additional reinforcing swell east of 70W. Looking ahead, yet another front will move off the northeast Florida coast Sat, and move east of the region through Mon.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services