Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Mar 1 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will support strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean during the next several days. A tighter pressure gradient will initiate pulsing rounds of gale-force winds offshore NW Colombia at night, starting tonight and continuing through at least next weekend. Locally very rough seas are expected with these winds.
Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A strong high pressure of 1033 mb located SW of the Azores near 33N38W is maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of the eastern and central Atlantic. Wind waves associated with these winds will continue to generate seas of 8 to 14 ft across most of the waters between 20W and 60W, with highest seas E of 50W. This swell event will persist through early next week.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is observed south of a line running from the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra Leone to near 00N50W.
A weak stationary front extends across the SE Gulf waters, producing a few showers ahead of this boundary. The weak pressure gradient across the basin supports moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast, a nearly stationary front extends from near Naples, Florida southwestward to 24N87W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along and south of the front between 83W and 87W. This activity will continue southeastward across the far SE Gulf this morning. The stationary front will transition to a weakening cold front this morning, slowly move southeastward and exit the basin while becoming diffuse. Afterward, a strong high pressure system will build west-southwestward over the area from the N Atlantic beginning tonight, with the related gradient generally supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the Gulf. Locally strong winds will occur at night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula starting Tue.
A broad high pressure over the central Atlantic extends a ridge into the Caribbean Sea, supporting fresh to strong trades and moderate seas across much of the central and eastern Caribbean. Rough seas are analyzed in the south-central basin offshore Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will support fresh to near gale-force easterly trades and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. A tighter pressure gradient will initiate gale-force winds off Colombia beginning tonight and through the week leading to locally very rough seas. Fresh to strong northeast winds will begin in the Windward Passage starting late Mon night. Rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through the forecast period, with seas to 12 ft reaching 55W Mon. Elsewhere, little change is expected, with moderate to fresh trades continuing through the period.
A cold front extends southwestward from 31N71W to SE Florida. To the south, a pre-frontal trough is analyzed from south to north across the central and southern Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen N of 24N between 65W and 80W. A strong high pressure of 1034 mb situated SW of the Azores near 33N40W extends a ridge across the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. This system is maintaining fresh to strong E winds across much of the eastern and central Atlantic, particularly E of 60W, with rough seas. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are noted on the western periphery of the ridge. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front extends southwestward from near 31N71W to 27N76W and to the South Florida region while a trough extends from 27.5N74W to the central Bahamas and to near eastern Cuba. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are evident from 24N to 29N between 72W and 79W and north of 27N between 66W and 72W. A shortwave trough aloft shifting east-southeastward over the waters between the Bahamas and Florida is helping to sustain these showers and thunderstorms. The front will weaken further as it slowly moves southeastward reaching from near 31N67W to 28N70W and stationary front to the near the Florida Keys tonight, and from near 31N62W to the central Bahamas early on Mon as it becomes diffuse. Elsewhere, high pressure over the central Atlantic continues to maintain control over much of the western Atlantic while rough seas prevail over the southeastern waters. Another cold front is expected to enter the northern waters during the early part of the week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to near gale-force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 13 ft, are forecast behind the front Mon through Tue night north of 27N. An expansive area of high pressure will build across the north- central Atlantic by the middle of the upcoming week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services