Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
to receive our free report directly to your inbox
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jan 25 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move SE across the entire basin today through Mon evening. Strong reinforcing arctic high pressure behind the front is expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of the Gulf Sun and Sun night, gale force winds over the offshore waters of Tampico Sun night into Mon morning, and gales over the waters offshore Veracruz Mon and Mon night. Seas are expected to quickly build across the basin starting Sun reaching 16 or 17 ft over the SW Gulf late on Mon. Conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves SE into the NW Caribbean and high pressure builds across the region. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 01N25W to 02N39W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator to 05N between 10W and 15W. Similar convective activity is from 05N to 08N between 33W and 37W.
A weak 1009 mb low is analyzed near 27N95W, with a warm front that extends northeastward into the SE LA coast and a cold front that extends southwestward into the NE Mexico coast. A stationary front also extends across the far NE Gulf. Scattered showers are seen near the cold front and stationary front. Recent derived satellite imagery also shows fog banks forming between the coast and both aforementioned frontal boundaries in the W and NE Gulf, so mariners should be aware for the potential for reduced visibility in these areas. Recent scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh SE winds and 2-5 ft across much of the basin ahead of the front. Immediately behind the front, winds are quickly veering to blow from the NW at fresh to strong speeds and seas are building to 5 to 8 ft.
For the forecast, a stationary front extends from N-central Florida westward across the outer waters of the Florida Big Bend to coastal Mississippi, then transitions to a warm front southwestward across SE Louisiana to 1009 mb low pressure offshore of central Texas near 28N95W with a cold front then extending S-SW to the Mexican coast along 24N. The low pressure will deepen as it tracks NE into Louisiana by early Sun pulling the warm front N of the area. The cold front will move SE across the entire basin Sun through Mon evening. Strong reinforcing arctic high pressure behind the front is expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of the Gulf Sun and Sun night, gale force winds over the offshore waters of Tampico Sun night into Mon morning, and gales over the waters offshore Veracruz Mon and Mon night. Seas are expected to quickly build across the basin starting Sun. Conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves SE into the NW Caribbean and high pressure builds across the region. Mariners are advised to keep alert with the latest forecasts.
The most recent satellite derived wind data indicate moderate to locally fresh trades across most of the basin with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for fresh to strong trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft near the coast of Colombia. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic is bringing seas of 6 to 8 ft across the Atlantic passages of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail in the NW Caribbean.
For the forecast, broad high pressure over the east central Atlantic will maintain mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early next week, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night through Sun, then to near gale force afterward into midweek. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside into early next week, with seas lingering to 8 ft through early Wed. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by late Tue into Wed, weakening to a shearline Thu. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh on Wed, and increasing back to fresh to strong on Thu as stronger high pressure builds southward toward the NW Caribbean.
A stationary front extends from near Bermuda westward to inland north Florida just S of Daytona Beach, FL. A surface trough is analyzed E of the front and runs from 31N60W to 27N73W. Another surface tough is analyzed from 31N57W to 23N65W, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near this trough as well. In the far east Atlantic, large lingering N swell with seas of 12 to 16 ft persists near the Canary Islands and offshore Morocco.
High pressure of 1030 mb located W of the Madeira Islands near 31N24W dominates the remainder of the forecast region. Under this weather pattern, a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft is noted from 05N to 25N and E of 40W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to fresh trades are occurring S of 22N and W of 40W, including the Caribbean Passages. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front has become stationary from near 31N70W westward to 31N80W and then inland across central Florida near New Smyrna Beach, FL. A surface trough SE of the front extends from 31N60W to just E of the NW Bahamas. High pressure across the eastern Atlantic extends a broad ridge westward along 28N to the trough along 60W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop over the NW forecast waters Sun evening through early Mon in advance of a strong arctic cold front that is expected to move offshore northeastern Florida. Winds to near gale force will develop just N of the area early on Mon. The front will reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and to west central Cuba Mon evening, from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Tue evening, then begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N49W to 25N62W and stationary to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Wed afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected W of the front Mon afternoon through Tue afternoon. The frontal boundary will extend from near 29N55W to 25N66W and to near 20N70W by late Thu as another strong cold front moves out across the NW forecast waters. This front is expected to be precede and followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas nearing 12 ft.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services