Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Mar 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
East Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale warning is in effect, issued by Meteo-France, for the high seas zones of Irving, west of Madeira, and Meteor until 20/00 UTC at least, with severe gusts. Please refer to the next Special Feature for details on associated large swells. Please refer to the high seas forecast issued by Meteo-France on the website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.
East Atlantic Long-period N Swell: Large, long-period north swell generated by a large fetch of gale to storm-force winds in the northeast Atlantic will continue to propagate southward of 31N through the weekend. Expect seas of 12-24 ft through Sat mainly N of the Cape Verde Islands and east of 43W. Seas across these northeastern waters will then gradually reduce in areal coverage and subside below 12 ft near the Canary Islands on Mon. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, then curves southwestward to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is ongoing from 03S to 05N west of 10W.
A 1025 mb high pressure system near the mouth of the Mississippi River dominates the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures associated with a stationary front east of the area results in fresh to strong NE winds across the Florida Straits with rough seas, and moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas elsewhere in the eastern Gulf, east of 90W. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf region and a stationary front over the NW Caribbean Sea will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, through Fri. A surface trough will come off the Yucatan Peninsula every evening with moderate to fresh NE winds, which will affect the eastern Bay of Campeche from Sat through Mon. Elsewhere moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas will prevail.
A stationary front extends from central Cuba to the Gulf on Honduras. A surface trough is ahead of the front curving SE to NW Colombia offshore waters. Low level convergence induced by both the front and the pre-frontal trough continue to support scattered showers across E Cuba and adjacent waters N of 17N. Moderate to fresh northerly winds with seas to 7 ft are behind of the front over the NW Caribbean. Over the eastern and central Caribbean, moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds and rough seas will continue to follow the stationary front through Fri night as it transitions to a cold front today before dissipating offshore Nicaragua late Fri. Afterward, moderate to fresh NE winds will remain in the western Caribbean, including the lee side of Cuba and the Windward Passage as high pressure develops across the northern Bahamas in the wake of the front. As the ridge shifts slightly eastward, fresh to strong winds will develop offshore Colombia Sun through Mon night.
Refer to the Special Features section for details on an east Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France, and associated large northerly swells.
A stationary front extends from 31N69W to Andros Island to central Cuba into the NW Caribbean. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 30N66W to the southern Bahamas. Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with both features cover the offshore waters between 61W and 78W. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas are noted behind of the front while moderate to fresh SE winds are ahead of it along with moderate to rough seas.
An extensive 1032 mb high pressure system centered near 38N44W dominates the remainder SW N Atlantic and central subtropical waters. Over the eastern subtropical waters, a cold front is moving across the Canary Islands with a reinforcing front trailing the leading front. The pressure gradient between the broad ridge and the low pressure system associated with the front is supporting fresh to near gale-force winds and very rough seas to 22 ft, N of 24N and east of 41W to the coast of Africa. Moderate to fresh winds and rough seas under a relatively tight pressure gradient are present between 60W and 41W, including the tropical waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, the front will remain nearly stationary west of Bermuda to the central Bahamas today, then it will transition to a cold front as a low pressure attached to the front moves quickly NE of the forecast area through Sat night. High pressure over the SE CONUS and over the north-central Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong winds and rough seas on either side of the front and across the offshore forecast waters N of 25N through the weekend. A new cold front is forecast to enter the NE Florida offshore waters Mon night into Tue, which will bring strong winds and rough seas to the area.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services