Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed May 14 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Gambia, then extends southwestward to near 03N24W. An ITCZ continues westward from 03N24W across 03N35W to just north of French Guiana at 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 04N between 10W and 23W, and up to 180 nm along either side of the ITCZ.
The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia.
A surface trough over southern Florida is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Florida Straits near central Cuba. A surface ridge reaches westward from a 1014 mb high at the east-central Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are present at the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the central Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to SSE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident at the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.
For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern Gulf should steadily strengthen through Wed, then drift eastward towards Florida where it will prevail through the weekend. This will maintain the tight gradient against lower pressure over eastern Mexico, sustaining fresh to locally strong southerly winds along with moderate to rough seas over the western Gulf through the weekend.
A broad surface ridge across the western Atlantic near 25N continues to support a trade-wind regime for most of the Caribbean Basin. A surface trough is producing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern basin, including waters just east of the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft dominate the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are seen over the eastern, north-central and southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail at the northwestern basin.
For the forecast, high pressure north of Bermuda will continue to support strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia through late Wed along with moderate to rough seas. It will lift northward and then southeastward towards the central Atlantic subtropical waters. This should keep mainly moderate to fresh trades across the central and eastern basin Wed night through Thu night, and gentle to moderate easterly winds through the weekend. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to rough seas are going to prevail over the tropical Atlantic waters and passages through Sat night. Otherwise, pulsing fresh to strong E winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras from late Wed through Sat night.
Convergent winds east of a surface trough over southern Florida are triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northwest Bahamas. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Caribbean Sea sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A broad surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1025 mb high at the central Atlantic at 30N34W to beyond the central Bahamas. These features are supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft north of 25N between 35W and 68W. To the west, moderate to fresh SSE to SSW winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are found north of 25N between 68W and the Florida east coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 25N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles/Bahamas, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh S to SE winds and rough seas to 8 ft will linger through early tonight across the offshore waters northeast of Freeport, north of 28N between 74W and 77W, associated with the remnants of a frontal boundary. Farther south, pulsing fresh to strong E winds are expected each afternoon and evening offshore of northern Hispaniola through Thu. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas in mixed NE and SE swells will prevail south of 25N this week, including across the Atlantic passages into the eastern Caribbean.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services